Author Topic: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?  (Read 172101 times)

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1200 on: March 08, 2019, 05:50:05 pm »
I've made arrangements, just in case.  But I'm not going to be run out by these morons, not without getting to say "I fucking told you so" before I get lynched.

Besides, the way things are going, they will probably revoke my passport and exile me back to Australia anyway.

Pergamos

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1201 on: March 08, 2019, 07:59:05 pm »
I've made arrangements, just in case.  But I'm not going to be run out by these morons, not without getting to say "I fucking told you so" before I get lynched.

Besides, the way things are going, they will probably revoke my passport and exile me back to Australia anyway.

They want out of the commonwealth too?

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1202 on: March 08, 2019, 08:06:51 pm »
No, for both the UK and Australia.

But we're deporting veterans, and UK law is that you can rescind nationality if the person won't be rendered stateless (ie; is a dual-national), so I don't have a chance in hell.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1203 on: March 11, 2019, 07:37:58 am »
This week's going to be a shitshow.

Tomorrow, Parliament votes on May's deal.  Again.  They will reject it, again, because no progress has been made on talks in Europe.

When that fails, we will have a vote on Wednesday, on whether the UK should avoid a No Deal Brexit.  That will probably pass.

Then on Thursday, assuming the Wednesday vote passes, there will be a vote on whether to extend Article 50.  I haven't seen the wargaming on this yet, but my suspicion is that this will not pass, as the insane portion of the press have done a good job in convincing people that delaying Brexit = no Brexit.

With no mechanisms to enforce the "avoiding no deal" vote, while having definitely voted for that outcome, Parliament will descend into chaos as there is 2 weeks until Brexit happens and no way forward. 

If Article 50 is extended, it can only be done so for a couple of months at maximum, and given the EU's clear position I doubt any more alterations to their position are forthcoming. The UK will then end up in the same position in May, with right-wing loonies working themselves up into a frothing frenzy in the meantime.

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1204 on: March 11, 2019, 11:57:31 am »
The only way mays deal could get through is at 11PM on the 29th. And only if enough ministers have self preservation of their own investments in not tanking the economy. It would be the only scenario where enough people switch position on Mays deal but if comes to that the most likely outcome is a delay or ripping up article 50.
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Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1205 on: March 11, 2019, 06:12:14 pm »
And even then, I would only give it even odds of passing.

And, lets remember, this is the negotiation for the political settlement. The economic negotiating will be brutal.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1206 on: March 12, 2019, 08:32:32 am »
The last minute “concessions” from the EU on the backstop won’t be enough to sway today’s vote. And given that, in substance, nothing has changed they probably shouldn’t be.

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1207 on: March 12, 2019, 08:48:17 am »
If the UK is committed to no border in NI, which it has said at every point it is, why not own that decision and just remove the backstop from the EU negotiations at all.

Have a political declaration or treaty built on the good Friday agreement that NI will stay in the customs union with the border down the Irish sea. Instead of shying away from it, own the decision.
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Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1208 on: March 12, 2019, 09:58:50 am »
In that scenario the DUP would collapse the government for putting NI on a different regulatory framework to the rest of the UK permanently.

Speaking of which, the DUP wants to delay the vote to study the declaration more, while the ERG lawyers say it doesn’t satisfy their demands.

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1209 on: March 12, 2019, 10:31:37 am »
There's no way out of the deadlock while the DUP are there unless enough labour rebels and the independent group went for her deal which I don't think they will. An election could in theory sort out the DUP issue, but not the ERG. Though to be honest I've always had the feeling the ERG used the backstop as an excuse to get what they really want which is no deal.

Realistically though this is the world where votes go wrong and the new government would be an even weaker brand of Tory with 1 or 2 more DUP beasties in there for good measure.
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Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1210 on: March 12, 2019, 05:54:14 pm »
And yet that's what may happen.

People are predicting today's vote fails, despite some ERG defections, tomorrow's vote passes, Thursday's vote passes.  Parliament is dissolved, elections are called for, the Tory party falls to civil war and we get a second referendum.

It's far, far too optimistic.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1211 on: March 12, 2019, 07:25:17 pm »
Well, there we go

Doktor Howl

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1212 on: March 12, 2019, 07:38:07 pm »
"Daisy had syphilis, Tom died of genital warts, and Nick Carroway watched it all in mounting horror, then made off with the silverware and the maid."
~ The Good Reverend

Evil doesn't work without good people. Good people will do the most repugnant, nasty shit for what they think are "the right reasons"

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1213 on: March 12, 2019, 07:39:00 pm »
Deal rejected, again

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1214 on: March 12, 2019, 07:42:47 pm »
Let me know when it's time to stop "Keeping Calm and Carrying On".