UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?

[Doktor Howl]

We have gone from "we hold all the cards" and "easiest trade deal in history" to "the EU is legally required to take pity on us" in the space of a year

So if I was putting money on the table, is May going to be around in 6 months?

[Cain]

It's looking increasingly likely that Boris Johnson is preparing a leadership bid.  His latest "Muslims are terrible" column, right after meeting with Steve Bannon, strongly suggest he's trying to whip up the far-right and gain their support for a putsch.

I just don't see the Commons doing anything about it until we're actually in No Deal territory, at the start of April.  When food starts running out and everything jumps up in price and people start rioting...then they will consider it.  But not a moment before.

[Doktor Howl]

It's looking increasingly likely that Boris Johnson is preparing a leadership bid.  His latest "Muslims are terrible" column, right after meeting with Steve Bannon, strongly suggest he's trying to whip up the far-right and gain their support for a putsch.

I just don't see the Commons doing anything about it until we're actually in No Deal territory, at the start of April.  When food starts running out and everything jumps up in price and people start rioting...then they will consider it.  But not a moment before.

How the fuck are the Brits even putting up with this?  I'd have figured they'd go full Cromwell by now.

[Cain]

No-one wants to believe it can really be that bad.  Everyone right now, with the exception of certain mid-tier civil servants, people with experience in customs and ports and people who handle anything that has to do with European based supply chains, is completely deluding themselves.

[Doktor Howl]

No-one wants to believe it can really be that bad.  Everyone right now, with the exception of certain mid-tier civil servants, people with experience in customs and ports and people who handle anything that has to do with European based supply chains, is completely deluding themselves.

I know those feels. 

[Cain]

https://www.theguardian.com/food/2018/sep/15/food-and-brexit-will-the-cupboard-be-bare-jay-rayner

It is a story which, anecdotally, appears to be repeated across the food sector: halted investment, shifted production, uncertainty. It indicates a shrinking of the food economy is under way. It also means Britain's food production is going to stall and even go into reverse at the exact moment it needs to go up. Only 49% of the food we consume in this country is now produced here. Another 30% comes directly from the EU. That's 10,000 shipping containers a day. Another 11% of the food we consume arrives under EU deals with third countries outside the EU; 70% of the cropland required to grow our food is located abroad.

People with knowledge of discussions within government told me about leading figures in the food industry going to see Theresa May to plead their case. "She just stonewalled them," one told me. Angus Davison of fruit company Haygrove summed up the views of many people across the food industry when he said of the prime minister, "She's not interested in us and not listening to us. She's an intelligent person, so I presume she doesn't care and is prepared to sacrifice the industry."

That said, the language of the report is practically staid compared to that used by Lang when we talk shortly after its publication. "This is the biggest challenge Britain has faced since the early 1940s," he says. "A hard Brexit would be an unprecedented event in modern food history." He describes a face-to-face meeting with Gove. "I told him he was driving the country into a food security crisis. He looked incredulous."

But surely the government wouldn't let that happen? Lang told me he had it on good authority from a senior adviser to a senior minister that currently the best notion the government had for dealing with a hard Brexit was to abandon all checks and regulation of food coming into the UK, with huge ramifications for both quality and safety. "That's not taking back control. It's abandoning it." And none of this even begins to get into the details of the free flow of food and agricultural goods across the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

But, you know, I'm an alarmist Remoaner for telling people to stockpile food in the event of a No Deal Brexit.

[Faust]

After today and yesterday, is there any other outcome than a no deal brexit left that's possible? It's going to tank our two economies and damage Europe.
We know what a century of poverty is like in the ROI, I'm not sure even in the depths of Thatchers reign the UK ever experienced what this is going to be like... so at least now that will be a shared cultural experience.

[Cain]

Oh there's still the possibility of coming up with a deal that satisfies the EU's redlines.

We won't, though.

Just remember that: we chose to act like entitled brats for domestic political consumption, instead of coming up with a deal.

[Faust]

I think what you were saying in the other thread about buying is a good idea.
If house prices come down to more favorable prices, immigration tapers off further driving it down could end up buying a place at about the lowest it might go over the next ten years. If I had money to spend I would be putting it in something less volatile then euro and pound for the next 12 months, which is basically only gold. and change some back once the currencies seem to hit bottom.

[Cain]

There's always Swiss francs, as currencies go it is fairly stable and while there is an EU impact on their value, Switzerland's economic management offsets that to a considerable degree.

And I agree, this is going to be the best time to purchase property.  I just hope that UK based landlords aren't going to try and swoop in first, as there has been some slowing of house sales over the last two years (hoarding cash for a crash to buy low, sell high).

[Doktor Howl]

How does Nigel Farage not get killed when he comes into England? 

I just saw a picture of him bellowing out some nonsense at a "Leave Means Leave" rally, which I presume are similar to Trump's EVERYBODY LOVES ME rallies.

[Cain]

A significant part of the population still love him, and Boris Johnson.  The Mail and Sun give them slobbery blowjobs all day long, and it shows in how people treat them with anything but contempt.

That said, 25% of Leave voters feel they were lied to, according to the most recent polls, so maybe some of the shine is coming off.

[Cain]

For a laugh, look at how often Farage (an MEP) has been invited on BBC's Newsnight in comparison with Caroline Lucas (a sitting MP and leader of the Green Party).

[Doktor Howl]

A significant part of the population still love him, and Boris Johnson.  The Mail and Sun give them slobbery blowjobs all day long, and it shows in how people treat them with anything but contempt.

That said, 25% of Leave voters feel they were lied to, according to the most recent polls, so maybe some of the shine is coming off.

I was just reading this, and wondering why nobody has just said "cancel Brexit"?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/6-months-before-brexit-many-in-uk-fear-'it's-looking-very-grisly'/ar-BBNJGDL?ocid=spartanntp

[Cain]

Apparently Labour will back a referendum on the final deal...if their members vote for it.   They should do, Labour members are overwhelmingly against Brexit, so if they could appeal to the Tory rebels, they could force the issue.

But that would only be a referendum on the terms of Brexit, not Brexit itself.  And nothing will stop this now, we are fully committed to jumping off this cliff.  Even the revelations of illegal spending by the Leave campaign (in a concerted campaign designed to avoid financial accountability) and the involvement of Russian figures in the Leave campaign, let alone the issues of implementing Brexit without fucking us all over, has not slowed down the process one bit.