General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread

[The Wizard Joseph]

Fuck. When I first heard of the story I didn't know it was a gas attack. I can see why people are beating the drums of War. Problem is there's no way to have a conventional War and a nuclear war would just destroy everybody. They got to be really sure it was Russia. I can't imagine who else would have a motive. Problem is I can't figure out why the Russians would want to ice somebody that they let go free in a prisoner Exchange if I have my info right. Much less why they would use a method so... Risky and prone to collateral damage.

And Trump has shit all to say.
Yay.

[Cain]

It's probably not gas, nerve agents can come in liquid forms as well and that would be better for a targeted attack.  However nothing has been confirmed so far.

The other reason that Russia is the likely culprit is that terrorist groups and organised crime simply don't have the kind of sophisticated personnel or labs to create these kind of weapons.

[The Wizard Joseph]

Admitting that I know practically nothing the thought occurs to me that perhaps criminals or terrorists could buy it. But you're right Russia is the most likely.

[Junkenstein]

It's probably not gas, nerve agents can come in liquid forms as well and that would be better for a targeted attack.  However nothing has been confirmed so far.

The other reason that Russia is the likely culprit is that terrorist groups and organised crime simply don't have the kind of sophisticated personnel or labs to create these kind of weapons.

Question: Guy and daughter lived, which implies incorrect or ineffective dose. Would this not potentially implicate a third actor with access to similar but shittier tech? Russia acting through a proxy allowing deniability seems to be the general MO, assuming Russia is the main benefactor (Not that there are any other apparent).

Also, chances of Russian citizen acting, not Russian state? Guessing ex-spy probably has a few financial records of a couple of oligarchs. Or could be assumed to by someone of that nature. Would help explain the sloppy nature of events.

[Cain]

Getting the components needed for a nerve toxin isn't easy.  In addition to the specific expertise and equipment needed to produce it, you then have to get it into the UK, because there is no way you can import those components without some very heavily scrutinized import licences.

Beyond that, it's a terribly expensive way to kill someone.  A guy with a gun, or a knife, is always a sure bet.  So why do you use a nerve toxin, or polonium or similar? To make it clear it was you, without saying it was you, and to send a message.  That message is you will die horribly and in pain and it will take weeks, and you deserve it for being traitor scum.

As for why this doesn't appear to have killed them, there could be a number of factors.  Dispersal may have caused a lower than lethal payload to be administered.  The spy and his daughter were found relatively quickly, and nerve agents take time to work (they make it so the body cannot produce important enzymes, leading to the eventual breakdown of the body's ability to maintain itself).  Nerve toxins also appear to be hard to use, the Tokyo sarin attacks should have killed hundreds but only managed to kill less than 10 because dispersal lessened the impact of the sarin.  It may also be a new compound, which would explain why they are cagey when it comes to naming what it actually is.

[Junkenstein]

Appreciated. The sarin comparison is useful, as is the quick primer on how nerve agents actually work.

I'm still putting a fiver on Dacre as the culprit though.

[Cain]

I had a small side bet on it being the risotto at Zizzi's.  I know Salisbury very well, and Zizzi is overrated as fuck.

However, May's statement today confirms that it was a Novichok nerve agent

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent

[Cain]

And...Tillerson is out at the State Department.  Pompeo at the CIA is to take over State, and some horrible Bush-era black site rendition relic is to take over at the CIA.

Tillerson knew he was being fired on Friday, which may be why he made such a forceful statement blaming Russia for the Salisbury nerve agent attack - it was his parting shot at the administration.

[P3nT4gR4m]

So, assuming that Putin ordered the hit. Further assuming that he knew a nerve toxin assassination was not going to go unnoticed by whom it may concern. He must have known zombie thatcher was going to get all hardass rhetoric on the subject. What's his next move?

Is this some tzarish dick waving thing? Like "what the fuck you gonna do about it now I have the US President in my back pocket?" or am I missing something?

[Cain]

According to the latest reports, Tillerson didn't know he was going to be fired.  Interesting.

[Cain]

So, assuming that Putin ordered the hit. Further assuming that he knew a nerve toxin assassination was not going to go unnoticed by whom it may concern. He must have known zombie thatcher was going to get all hardass rhetoric on the subject. What's his next move?

Is this some tzarish dick waving thing? Like "what the fuck you gonna do about it now I have the US President in my back pocket?" or am I missing something?

Strangely enough, the Guardian just posted an article on the strategic logic of why Putin may have ordered this

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/13/russia-west-ties-bind-skripal-poisoning-trump

Russia has already learned from intervening in Syria that there is almost no red line it can't cross there, no war crime so unspeakable that the west won't quietly let it slide rather than get dragged into another war where all the likely outcomes are bad. It learned from Ukraine that all is not entirely well in Nato, and from dabbling in the US election not only that social media is a gift to information warfare, but also that western democracy isn't completely resolute in defending its integrity; that even a tainted victory might be preferred to defeat. Now it's moved on to testing all the other ties that used to bind, and which could present an obstacle to its ambitions, from the once-special relationship to historical EU alliances. It will surely be watching hawk-like for any sign that Brexit has weakened solidarity between Britain, France and Germany, or that the EU is now more preoccupied with internal than external threats.

[Cain]

In addition to that, it definitely is dick-waving...but for Russian domestic consumption.  There's a Presidential election coming up, Putin's popularity is slowly but surely decreasing, and no-one in Russia really believes Russia didn't do this.

It shows Putin is still top dog, he can brazenly kill traitors abroad and not suffer consequences.

[P3nT4gR4m]

Yeah, BBC showed an clip from a state interview last night, filmed just before the hit apparently. "Is there anything you can't forgive?", Putin "Betrayal" (comedy turn to camera)

[LMNO]

According to the latest reports, Tillerson didn't know he was going to be fired.  Interesting.

And then they summarily fired the staffer who said Tillerson didn't know.

[Cain]

Yup, though apparently the guy in question was known as a Never-Trumper despite being a political appointee (?) so they were looking for an excuse.  In any event, State is now completely gutted.  Most major positions are unfilled.  41 ambassdorships, including to major countries like Germany, still have yet to be filled.  And Pompeo has a hate boner for both North Korea and Iran.

Next stop will be kicking out McMaster at the NSC and replacing him with John Bolton.  This is going to happen, it's only a matter of when.  And then Mattis will be outflanked on North Korea and Iran.  And then, if the negotiations even happen (North Korea has not yet responded to the US), Trump can blithely fuck them up and go on with the military action like he wanted to.