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the triumph of maybe logic (?)

Started by LHX, December 22, 2005, 03:28:23 AM

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LMNO

...aaaand we're back to the Tao.

LHX

Quote from: East Coast Hustle
Quote from: LHX
Quote from: East Coast Hustle
Quote from: Baron von Hoopla
Quote from: East Coast Hustlethreads like this are why nerds get the crap kicked out of them in gym class.

just saying.

Nerds get the crap kicked out of them in gym class because some people can't stand the fact that other people are more clever.

Just saying.

pretentious intellectual grandstanding != being clever

just saying.

trying to figure something out != pretentious intellectual grandstanding

LHX = unsure where ECH was pointing that gun

Hell if I know. It's a blunderbuss.

i say let the shots go then


and the rockets red glare

i gotta find my m.o.p. albums
neat hell

Jean-Paul Fartre

Quote from: erotic
Essentially, you seem to be trying to fold ML in on itself and make it implode, but ML easily encompasses itself in a very clear manner.

As far as posssibilities are concerned, do you think that there are ways to deduce what degree of probability can be associated with any idea?  Does everything end up having an equal possibility of occuring or is there still a difference in possibilities?

What I mean is: your pen is dropping.  There's an infinitesimal chance of it becoming a brown dwarf and a more likely chance it it hitting the ground.  Can you measure that still?  Can you say that hitting the ground has a greater chance of happening than brown dwarf-morph?  If so, how do you measure that with ML?

Does that make sense?

,Äúnot true/kinda true/more true than that/pretty awfully convinced that this is most likely true,Äù
-- Can we provide percentages or is thaat impossible?

I guess what I want to know is: if every possible scenario is still a possibility, does that mean that 100% chance (of something happening and something not happening) is divided infinitely?


JPF
...un homard est-il plus ridicule qu'un chien, qu'un chat, qu'une gazelle, qu'un lion ou toute autre bête dont on se fait suivre ? J'ai le goût des homards, qui sont tranquilles, sérieux, savent les secrets de la mer, n'aboient pas... -- Gérard de Nerval

Whoever after due and proper warning shall be heard to utter the abominable word "Frisco," which has no linguistic or other warrant, shall be deemed guilty of a High Misdemeanor, and shall pay into the Imperial Treasury as penalty the sum of twenty-five dollars. -- Norton I

LHX

Quote from: erotic...aaaand we're back to the Tao.


who keeps letting that fucker in here?!
neat hell

LHX

Quote from: Jean-Paul Fartre
Quote from: erotic
Essentially, you seem to be trying to fold ML in on itself and make it implode, but ML easily encompasses itself in a very clear manner.

As far as posssibilities are concerned, do you think that there are ways to deduce what degree of probability can be associated with any idea?  Does everything end up having an equal possibility of occuring or is there still a difference in possibilities?

What I mean is: your pen is dropping.  There's an infinitesimal chance of it becoming a brown dwarf and a more likely chance it it hitting the ground.  Can you measure that still?  Can you say that hitting the ground has a greater chance of happening than brown dwarf-morph?  If so, how do you measure that with ML?

Does that make sense?

,Äúnot true/kinda true/more true than that/pretty awfully convinced that this is most likely true,Äù
-- Can we provide percentages or is thaat impossible?

I guess what I want to know is: if every possible scenario is still a possibility, does that mean that 100% chance (of something happening and something not happening) is divided infinitely?


JPF

for me - e-prime demonstrates that this kind of situation might be ridiculous to even consider


e-prime has that seondary implication - one of the only areas where it becomes questionable to use seems to be regarding situations that have no bearing on anything



perhaps you could say e-prime also suggests that there are things not worth talking about
neat hell

Toots

Quote from: Jean-Paul Fartre
Quote from: erotic
Essentially, you seem to be trying to fold ML in on itself and make it implode, but ML easily encompasses itself in a very clear manner.

As far as posssibilities are concerned, do you think that there are ways to deduce what degree of probability can be associated with any idea?  Does everything end up having an equal possibility of occuring or is there still a difference in possibilities?

What I mean is: your pen is dropping.  There's an infinitesimal chance of it becoming a brown dwarf and a more likely chance it it hitting the ground.  Can you measure that still?  Can you say that hitting the ground has a greater chance of happening than brown dwarf-morph?  If so, how do you measure that with ML?

Does that make sense?

,Äúnot true/kinda true/more true than that/pretty awfully convinced that this is most likely true,Äù
-- Can we provide percentages or is thaat impossible?

I guess what I want to know is: if every possible scenario is still a possibility, does that mean that 100% chance (of something happening and something not happening) is divided infinitely?


JPF

Hold on dude. You're missing the bigger point. Yes the chance of the pen turning into a dwarf is small. But the chance that someone may come into the room last second and grab it before it hits the ground is much bigger.
So is the pen going to fall down?

Maybe.

Is the world going to be around 100 years from now?

Maybe.

Is what we consider good actually good? Or could it be that our warped perception makes it appear good while actually being evil?

MAYBE.
I'm laughing, but it's a laugh of impatience.

If you can take the hot lead enema, then you can cast the first stone[/b]
Lenny Bruce

Toots

Also, JPF. A MAYBE is not a YES or a NO, it's a MAYBE.

I think this is what everyone is trying to make you see. ( I think anyway, I could be off base if so feel free to jump in and correct.)
I'm laughing, but it's a laugh of impatience.

If you can take the hot lead enema, then you can cast the first stone[/b]
Lenny Bruce

Jean-Paul Fartre

You aren't catching my drift.

Possibilities seem to be maybes?
Does ML mean that inifity may not be infinity?


JPF
...un homard est-il plus ridicule qu'un chien, qu'un chat, qu'une gazelle, qu'un lion ou toute autre bête dont on se fait suivre ? J'ai le goût des homards, qui sont tranquilles, sérieux, savent les secrets de la mer, n'aboient pas... -- Gérard de Nerval

Whoever after due and proper warning shall be heard to utter the abominable word "Frisco," which has no linguistic or other warrant, shall be deemed guilty of a High Misdemeanor, and shall pay into the Imperial Treasury as penalty the sum of twenty-five dollars. -- Norton I

LMNO

Quote from: Jean-Paul Fartre
Quote from: erotic
Essentially, you seem to be trying to fold ML in on itself and make it implode, but ML easily encompasses itself in a very clear manner.

As far as posssibilities are concerned, do you think that there are ways to deduce what degree of probability can be associated with any idea?  

So, you,Äôre looking for a mathematical equation that will give you an exact percentage?  I,Äôm not sure there,Äôs a catch-all formula, but if you really wanted to look, I,Äôd suggest quantum physics as a start.

QuoteDoes everything end up having an equal possibility of occuring or is there still a difference in possibilities?

You,Äôre kidding, right?  I thought you said you knew how ML worked.

QuoteWhat I mean is: your pen is dropping.  There's an infinitesimal chance of it becoming a brown dwarf and a more likely chance it it hitting the ground.  Can you measure that still?  Can you say that hitting the ground has a greater chance of happening than brown dwarf-morph?  If so, how do you measure that with ML?

Remember, these are game rules, and therefore, arbitrary.  Yes, you probably can measure the probability of pen-to-brown dwarf, but I don,Äôt get that picky.  I just say, ,Äúnot fucking likely,Äù, and carry on with my day.  Not to mention, if that did happen, knowing how improbable it was will be the least of my worries.


Quote,Äúnot true/kinda true/more true than that/pretty awfully convinced that this is most likely true,Äù
-- Can we provide percentages or is that impossible?

You can, if you,Äôd like.  I,Äôm more subjective.  The point is that it,Äôs not a ,Äúyes/no,Äù dichotomy, it,Äôs a ,Äúmore than/less than,Äù evaluation.

QuoteI guess what I want to know is: if every possible scenario is still a possibility, does that mean that 100% chance (of something happening and something not happening) is divided infinitely?

I don,Äôt see why not.  But much like in physics, you,Äôll get a large chunk of the 100% divided among a handful of things, and an extremely small fraction of a percent taken up by everything else.

LMNO

Quote from: Jean-Paul FartreYou aren't catching my drift.

Possibilities seem to be maybes?
Does ML mean that inifity may not be infinity?


JPF

Infinity is a concept, dummy.  A definition.

We may think a thing is infinite, and be wrong, however.

Jean-Paul Fartre

Quote from: erotic

You can, if you,Äôd like.  I,Äôm more subjective.  The point is that it,Äôs not a ,Äúyes/no,Äù dichotomy, it,Äôs a ,Äúmore than/less than,Äù evaluation.

QuoteI guess what I want to know is: if every possible scenario is still a possibility, does that mean that 100% chance (of something happening and something not happening) is divided infinitely?

I don,Äôt see why not.  But much like in physics, you,Äôll get a large chunk of the 100% divided among a handful of things, and an extremely small fraction of a percent taken up by everything else.

I was asking specifically ABOUT the more/less thing and your last paragraph answered my question.

FINALLY

Now we can get on with our day(s).  That took a bit didn't it?

JPF
...un homard est-il plus ridicule qu'un chien, qu'un chat, qu'une gazelle, qu'un lion ou toute autre bête dont on se fait suivre ? J'ai le goût des homards, qui sont tranquilles, sérieux, savent les secrets de la mer, n'aboient pas... -- Gérard de Nerval

Whoever after due and proper warning shall be heard to utter the abominable word "Frisco," which has no linguistic or other warrant, shall be deemed guilty of a High Misdemeanor, and shall pay into the Imperial Treasury as penalty the sum of twenty-five dollars. -- Norton I

LMNO

Wait, your whole point was whether or not a system of game rules that subjectively applies percentages of truth can be divided infinitely?






Wow, that was really stupid.

Jean-Paul Fartre

Quote from: erotic
Quote from: Jean-Paul FartreYou aren't catching my drift.

Possibilities seem to be maybes?
Does ML mean that inifity may not be infinity?


JPF

Infinity is a concept, dummy.  A definition.

We may think a thing is infinite, and be wrong, however.

Does it seem possible for an infinite number of possibilities to exist?

JPF
...un homard est-il plus ridicule qu'un chien, qu'un chat, qu'une gazelle, qu'un lion ou toute autre bête dont on se fait suivre ? J'ai le goût des homards, qui sont tranquilles, sérieux, savent les secrets de la mer, n'aboient pas... -- Gérard de Nerval

Whoever after due and proper warning shall be heard to utter the abominable word "Frisco," which has no linguistic or other warrant, shall be deemed guilty of a High Misdemeanor, and shall pay into the Imperial Treasury as penalty the sum of twenty-five dollars. -- Norton I

Jean-Paul Fartre

Quote from: eroticWait, your whole point was whether or not a system of game rules that subjectively applies percentages of truth can be divided infinitely?






Wow, that was really stupid.

Prove it.

JPF
...un homard est-il plus ridicule qu'un chien, qu'un chat, qu'une gazelle, qu'un lion ou toute autre bête dont on se fait suivre ? J'ai le goût des homards, qui sont tranquilles, sérieux, savent les secrets de la mer, n'aboient pas... -- Gérard de Nerval

Whoever after due and proper warning shall be heard to utter the abominable word "Frisco," which has no linguistic or other warrant, shall be deemed guilty of a High Misdemeanor, and shall pay into the Imperial Treasury as penalty the sum of twenty-five dollars. -- Norton I

LMNO

Quote from: Jean-Paul Fartre
Quote from: eroticWait, your whole point was whether or not a system of game rules that subjectively applies percentages of truth can be divided infinitely?






Wow, that seems really stupid in the opinion of most people on this board.

Prove it.

JPF

Fixed in E-Prime.