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Aneristic Illusions / Re: Picking Cain's Brains
« on: December 29, 2022, 02:09:52 pm »
In the short term, I believe the Central Russian Bank will recover and reorientate from the shock. The move came as a surprise - both the timing and that it happened at all - and so they're scrambling to recover, obviously hampered by the existing sanction regime narrowing their options. But the current run is mostly a consequence of that shock.
Longer term, the damage is done, it's just not equally distributed. EU price caps and bans on Russian oil sales, capital flight and sourcing for parts will hit harder once winter properly settles in and starts breaking things down. Being unable to source replacements, while revenue drains away and international companies refuse to work in the region will hit them hard. I don't think we'll see a dramatic tipping point like the bank run or anything, but the damage it'll do to the average Russian and the Russian military (which is already on its last legs) will almost certainly be more noticeable. Ukraine is already penetrating Russia's air space with drones, so I expect if we see mass defeats in the field, that may cause more panic than anything on the economic front - or pre-empt it.
(as an aside, still impressed with how Biden and NATO have thrashed their biggest regional rival with what is effectively a rounding error on the US military budget, and shown that NATO's combined arms docrine is still very relevant)
Longer term, the damage is done, it's just not equally distributed. EU price caps and bans on Russian oil sales, capital flight and sourcing for parts will hit harder once winter properly settles in and starts breaking things down. Being unable to source replacements, while revenue drains away and international companies refuse to work in the region will hit them hard. I don't think we'll see a dramatic tipping point like the bank run or anything, but the damage it'll do to the average Russian and the Russian military (which is already on its last legs) will almost certainly be more noticeable. Ukraine is already penetrating Russia's air space with drones, so I expect if we see mass defeats in the field, that may cause more panic than anything on the economic front - or pre-empt it.
(as an aside, still impressed with how Biden and NATO have thrashed their biggest regional rival with what is effectively a rounding error on the US military budget, and shown that NATO's combined arms docrine is still very relevant)