Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - Cain

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 ... 2280
16
Aneristic Illusions / Re: Picking Cain's Brains
« on: December 29, 2022, 02:09:52 pm »
In the short term, I believe the Central Russian Bank will recover and reorientate from the shock. The move came as a surprise - both the timing and that it happened at all - and so they're scrambling to recover, obviously hampered by the existing sanction regime narrowing their options. But the current run is mostly a consequence of that shock.

Longer term, the damage is done, it's just not equally distributed. EU price caps and bans on Russian oil sales, capital flight and sourcing for parts will hit harder once winter properly settles in and starts breaking things down. Being unable to source replacements, while revenue drains away and international companies refuse to work in the region will hit them hard. I don't think we'll see a dramatic tipping point like the bank run or anything, but the damage it'll do to the average Russian and the Russian military (which is already on its last legs) will almost certainly be more noticeable. Ukraine is already penetrating Russia's air space with drones, so I expect if we see mass defeats in the field, that may cause more panic than anything on the economic front - or pre-empt it.

(as an aside, still impressed with how Biden and NATO have thrashed their biggest regional rival with what is effectively a rounding error on the US military budget, and shown that NATO's combined arms docrine is still very relevant)

17
Our insane TERF movement actually influences the US one, in an odd case of far-right transatlantic meme trade.

A lot of this stuff was a lot more popular and respectable to say in the UK than it ever has been in the US - though the far-right over there certainly picked it up and figured they could use it as a wedge in which to smuggle in homophobia and the rest. The American and Australian versions of The Guardian actually called out the UK version of The Guardian over it's repeated mainstreaming of transphobia, to little effect.

It's also far more respectable among centrists and supporters of ostensibly left-wing parties here (see: Keir Starmer for example). UK Labour supporters and the like would not be welcome in US liberal-left or Australian left circles at all with their views. A lot of ours try to play off that they're left-leaning centrists, despite allying with the religious right and self-stated Nazis on numerous occasions (also see the LGB Alliance on that point).

Most notably, the UK public opinion remains broadly supportive of trans people and transgender rights being expanded, but the papers have run a culture war on these issues from around 2019 onwards, with some publications running 300+ articles a year on the topic (none of which are penned by trans people, naturally). Hmm, what else happened in 2019? It's almost like they're running a culture war to distract from the abysmal state of the UK economy, which is now the weakest in western Europe, or the complete lack of credibility that the current government has.

18
Aneristic Illusions / Re: They're coming for you.
« on: December 19, 2022, 02:52:43 pm »
The new policy has been scrubbed from the Twitter support profile and Twitter policy webpage, btw

19
Aneristic Illusions / Re: They're coming for you.
« on: December 18, 2022, 11:10:34 pm »
As someone on Facebook mentioned, this is the "don't link to any other forums" move every admin of every dying forum tries to pull.

It's a fucking death spiral now. He's banning critical journalists and doing other dumb shit, but it doesn't really matter now.

20
Aneristic Illusions / Re: Picking Cain's Brains
« on: December 12, 2022, 03:13:29 am »
From what I've seen so far, he's not a complete shitshow.

Only because he hides from critical press and doesn't go out of a way to make a prat out of himself. He was one of Johnson's top cabinet members. This is just Johnsonianism without Johnson. So real problems are getting ignored in favour of asset-stripping and cronyism, and nothing will be done about any real issue ever.

Most MPs have already given up. They know the next general election is going to be a slaughter, so they're stealing office supplies and putting in sick days.

21
Aneristic Illusions / Re: Picking Cain's Brains
« on: December 12, 2022, 03:10:14 am »
Hmm. The way I see it, unless there's an igniting crisis, Sunak will just glide along until election day.

That said, there are so many looming crises that you can almost take your pick. At this point I consider public sector strikes escalating into wildcat strikes and the government trying to bring in emergency powers to curb their ability to legally strike to be a leading contender. Mike Lynch is charismatic and eats government reporters for breakfast, people are sympathetic to nurses and when the army inevitably gets pulled in, people will feel sorry for the squaddies and blame the suits, not the unions, for their woes.

Energy and cost of living crisis factors into that. Government continues to sit on its hands and do nothing. How many more businesses need to go under before the combination of those out of work and those in work but severely underpaid threaten to tilt into a crisis? How many families having to chose between heating and going bankrupt during what's projected to be an especially harsh winter?

EU negotiations are going suspiciously well...which means the Brexit gang are working themselves up to calling treason on Sunak. They're already putting Priti Patel forward to test the waters, but I think she's just to see how things look and not the real contender.

22
Probably the best case scenario tbh.

I'm just waiting for someone to spark an actual genocide, Radio Rwanada-style, and a bunch of carefully prepared and "verified" fake news feeds to sweep in and claim the victims are in fact the aggressors, and aggressively promote that lie through botfarms.

23
Apple Talk / Re: Open Bar: Curbside Pickup Only
« on: December 01, 2022, 11:55:43 pm »
Good luck in Zuckland.

I decided to watch a horror movie a friend recommended to me and it is the first time I've ever been genuinely terrified of a horror film. No worse possible outcome. I recommend it if you can get into slow-burns. Like, "Tarkovsky on Quaaludes" slow, but Jesus fuck. There's four things you could count as jump scares, though I don't know if any but one of them counts, and I don't think any of them are particularly scary or memorable aside from "oh wow" factor. It's the slow quiet shit that erodes your sanity.

It's called Skinamarink and there's currently no legal way to see it. I wish I had waited to see it.

Cainad mentioned this on Facebook. I am interested.

24
Oh, for sure. But someone should push him into a locker and beat him up for his lunch money.

25
Aneristic Illusions / Re: They're coming for you.
« on: November 24, 2022, 09:22:28 am »
Agreed. The rhetoric around this attack has been highly disturbing. Rather than disassociate themselves from the attacker, popular commentators have outright defended his actions and tried to justify them.

Twitter's probably going to end up being the Radio Rwanda of this too, when it happens. "LibsofTikTok" published information on another act in Colorado mere hours after the first attack, the implication being clear, "do them in too". With Musk dropping all protections for trans people from the platform (with deliberate malice in mind) there's going to be a concerted online effort to radicalise people who are already on the edge of violence.

This will not end well.

26
That is admittedly bragworthy. But yeah, regardless of origin it does seem like the kinda dumb thing Musk would be into, or pretend to be into to impress The Cool Kids (why he thinks Nazis are cool kids is also a discussion worth having)

27
I'm pretty sure it actually comes originally from PUA circles (though given the PUA/manosphere/toxic gamer culture overlap that's not saying much). Some of the older guides definitely talk about having a "prop" to initiate conversations with people.

28
Oh, I have something good for you. https://twitter.com/Palle_Hoffstein/status/1594371817107505154

Sweet merciless Goddess.  He's making the kinds of mistakes I would expect if someone was promoted into upper management fresh out of college.

He seems to think that because Twitter is HQ'd in California, California labour laws apply globally.

Which is, uh, an interesting legal interpretation, as my solicitor friends would say.

29
You should have at least held out to where he turned up to your house with his own sink.

This is the equivalent  of gamer culture where they get a cowboy hat, pipe or other prop to carry around with them, desperate for someone to ask about it

Oh yes. Given how many of them are fans of declaring things "cringe", so many of fans somehow don't see this behaviour as absolutely cringeworthy.

30
You should have at least held out to where he turned up to your house with his own sink.

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 ... 2280