Syria reported to have use Chemical Warfare

[Junkenstein]

Probably a combination of both. Anyone with access to a keyboard can call themselves a journalist nowadays so it's a lot more obvious when there's quality afoot. It's the bastards that disguise themselves as high quality you need to watch out for.

[Cain]

Bit of both, really.  Part of it's reputational.  If I were someone with access to contemporary intelligence files, and I wanted to talk about something I'd seen or been told, Hersh would come near the top of the list of people I'd speak to about it.  He protects his sources, and has the mainstream credibility and access to get that information across.

On the other hand, lots of people didnt like his book on Kennedy*, and he plays a bit fast and loose when he gives talks.  And there was that odd statement about the Knights Malta a while back.

*I have no desire to assess how good it is, given the dire state of President Kennedy research.  It'd be like walking in 50 years late on a neverending production of À la recherche du temps perdu.

[Cain]

After several days of silence, no doubt to get talking points memorised, Turkey has responded to Hersh's allegations

http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2014/04/09/seymour-hersh-debunked-by-turkey-us

[Junkenstein]

Well that's a pretty underwhelming defence. If you're going to take a couple of days to refute shit at least breathe fire while doing so.

[Junkenstein]

Some HO HO?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27016020

Syria's President Bashar al-Assad has claimed the upper hand in what he called a "turning point" in the three-year long civil war.

President Assad made the comments in an address at Damascus University,

His forces have been steadily recapturing rebel-held towns near the Lebanese border for several months.

More than 150,000 people have been killed in the conflict, with millions forced to flee their homes.

"This is a turning point in the crisis," President Assad said.

He added that his army was winning what he called "the war against terror".

Government forces have secured the main north-south highway in Syria in recent months, and have cut off vital supply routes for rebel forces.

On Friday, the government and opposition forces accused each other of using poison gas in the village of Kafr Zita.

The attack killed two people and left dozens injured.

Where's the funny? Well the joke is that Chemical weapons still seem to be in use and the world no longer gives any kind of shit.

In August last year, a chemical attack near the capital killed hundreds of people.

In August last year, many people had all sorts of incontrovertible evidence about who dun it. Now you get this rather neutral statement indicating no blame in either direction.

Given how long this has been dragging on and how CW's appear to still be in use, it's got to be a solid bet that more than a few of them have crossed various borders and are probably in the hands of those more inclined to use them. I've got a feeling that some of the larger terror attacks in the next 5/10 years will have their roots in this.

[Junkenstein]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27178999

The head of the task force in charge of eliminating Syria's chemical weapons says Damascus still holds about 7.5% of its 1,300-tonne stockpile at one site.

"The biggest bulk of the chemical weapons material is removed but not yet destroyed and that counts towards the 30 June deadline. That's why it's so important to get the remainder of the chemical weapons material that is still in one site," Ms Kaag, the head of the OPCW, told the BBC.

She also said the UN was concerned by recent reports that Syrian forces had used chlorine gas as a weapon.

Chlorine was not a substance included in the deal, which is widely seen as having averted US military action against the Syrian government.

Shit continues and isn't getting noticeably better yet. Expecting more shit the closer that deadline gets.

[Junkenstein]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27180006

Turns out that Aleppo isn't doing so well. Further details on Pope's religion at 11.

[Cain]

It's getting to the point that the US would be better off allying itself with Assad if it wants to combat Islamic extremism.

Who called it?  I called it:

This may well surprise experts, but senior administration officials tell me that Obama has been modifying his objective and is now prepared to work with Assad, to some degree, along with the moderate rebels, against what the White House finally has come to see as the real and major threat—the jihadists.

Because who could've forseen a violent uprising in the Middle East would come to be dominated by jihadist factions?

[LMNO]

Ever consider starting your own think tank?

[Cain]

Frequently, but I strongly suspect the market for non-partisan, unpopular truths is not a large enough one to sustain a business model.

[Junkenstein]

10 years ago, I would have said you were correct.

Today, I'm not so sure.

[Cain]

Looks like this might be a serious policy.  The pushback is already starting:

"If the United States decided to effectively accept Mr. Assad's continued rule on the grounds that he can provide a bulwark against terrorism, as some foreign policy thinkers have recommended, "that would crystallize the thinking of all these groups by convincing them that they are under an immediate American threat," said Emile Hokayem, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"A lot of these groups don't have a fixed idea about a global jihad, and they could go one way or the other, depending on Western policy," he said."

Yeah.  I bet Bin Laden didn't have fixed ideas about a global jihad in 1988, either.  But hey, we could just let jihadists who've shown an interest in chemical weapons build up a power base, material and recruits through constant fighting in Syria, with our tacit support.  I mean, they may just settle down after Assad goes, and we should take a gamble on that being the right call, yeah?

[Junkenstein]

Related, and can't think of a better thread for this:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27789229

As many as 500,000 people have been forced to flee Iraq's second city of Mosul after Islamist militants effectively took control of it.

Troops were among those fleeing as hundreds of jihadists from the ISIS group overran the city and much of the surrounding province of Nineveh.

Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki responded by asking parliament to declare a state of emergency to grant him greater powers.

The US said the development showed ISIS is a threat to the entire region.

ISIS - the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant - is an offshoot of al-Qaeda which now controls considerable territory in eastern Syria and western and central Iraq, in a campaign to set up a militant enclave straddling the border

Many police stations were reported to have been set on fire and hundreds of detainees set free.

"The army forces threw away their weapons, changed their clothes, abandoned their vehicles and left the city," Mahmud Nuri, a resident fleeing Mosul, told the AFP news agency.

The BBC's Jim Muir says the Iraqi security forces appear to have nothing to fight back against the ISIS militants.

The Iraqi government is struggling with a surge in sectarian violence that killed almost 800 people, including 603 civilians, in May alone, according to the UN. Last year, more than 8,860 people died.

I can't tell if this is intended or unintended consequences from the various fuckery the region has endured over the years. The ongoing Syria situation is almost certainly contributing to this which opens up all kinds of potential nastiness. I'm guessing that decisions by western (and other) leaders are going to cause this to get even shittier than it already is.

[Cain]

Tikrit fell yesterday, with over 60,000 Iraqi Army soldiers (admittedly, not all of them combat troops) capitulating to 4000 ISIS fighters.

[Cain]

Keep an eye on Kurdistan.  Can't say why, just set up a Google alert or something.