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General Trump hilarity free-for-all thread

Started by Mesozoic Mister Nigel, November 22, 2016, 04:26:22 PM

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The Wizard Joseph

Quote from: Salty on April 16, 2017, 02:29:03 AM
I make a pointed effort to avoid thinking about VX and it never works for long.

Yeah. I'm just not even able to approach some of the things I think about with my councilor, whom I like and want to see continue being all functional and helping folks. The devil really IS in the details, and fuck that guy.
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- Doktor Hamish Howl

P3nT4gR4m

Doesn't help that the korean fuckhead is probably the saner of the two. :kingmeh:

I'm up to my arse in Brexit Numpties, but I want more.  Target-rich environments are the new sexy.
Not actually a meat product.
Ass-Kicking & Foot-Stomping Ancient Master of SHIT FUCK FUCK FUCK
Awful and Bent Behemothic Results of Last Night's Painful Squat.
High Altitude Haggis-Filled Sex Bucket From Beyond Time and Space.
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walking the fine line line between genius and batshit fucking crazy

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Junkenstein

Quote from: P3nT4gR4m on April 16, 2017, 08:09:28 AM
Doesn't help that the korean fuckhead is probably the saner of the two. :kingmeh:

Better hair for sure, probably richer too.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

I mean (especially since their test yesterday failed) North Korea is mostly likely to whack Japan in any actual conflict anyway.  Whacking South Korea would ruin any plans for reconciliation or indeed taking control of the South, at least outside of the DMZ (sure, you'd level Seoul.  Then the rest of the country would engage in protracted insurgency for FOREVER, and South Korea is like 50% hills and mountains, so have fun with that).  Not to mention even their shitty SCUDs can, most likely, hit Japan (somewhere).

But it does significantly alter the strategic calculus for states further away - Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan etc.  And that does exponentially expand the amount of trouble Kim Jong-Un can cause.

Junkenstein

Quote from: Cain on April 15, 2017, 10:21:52 PM
Quote from: Junkenstein on April 15, 2017, 08:16:22 PM
So the annual NK sabre rattling is going to be even funnier than usual then?

Last night my feed was full of North Korea and arms control specialists going "ohhhh FUCK".  Not paraphrased.

Struggling to be that level of concerned. I'd suggest that after the usual April display things will go back to the normal standoff. I can't see the US being able to organise their shit to deal with it in an effective way anytime soon and sk support would be needed which is unlikely to occur due to their own internal shitshow, if the urge to do so was even there.

Realistically, sk has the most to lose as an easy local target so I'm betting you'll find fuck all support in the wider region too.

What I'm wondering is what horrible shit will occur internally in the US while bad haircuts posture at each other.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Junkenstein

Quote from: Cain on April 16, 2017, 04:33:00 PM
I mean (especially since their test yesterday failed) North Korea is mostly likely to whack Japan in any actual conflict anyway.  Whacking South Korea would ruin any plans for reconciliation or indeed taking control of the South, at least outside of the DMZ (sure, you'd level Seoul.  Then the rest of the country would engage in protracted insurgency for FOREVER, and South Korea is like 50% hills and mountains, so have fun with that).  Not to mention even their shitty SCUDs can, most likely, hit Japan (somewhere).

But it does significantly alter the strategic calculus for states further away - Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan etc.  And that does exponentially expand the amount of trouble Kim Jong-Un can cause.

Which leaves the region in general to push containment/appeasement then? China, sk, Japan will all be against attacking, Vietnam/Cambodia wouldn't help out of principle so your allies in an attack effort are who? UK, Australia and a few island nations? This is not a strategy likey to end in any kind of success and everyone involved surely knows this?
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Junkenstein

BBC just reporting "china and us working on strategy". Still skeptical. The two have radically different ideas about how to proceed and neither can back down or concede much from their stances without huge loss of face. If the US takes any offensive actions without Chinese support it basically proves nk propaganda correct. Which leaves the chances of pulling the hearts and minds shit dead in the dirt. Any attempts to reach out to the populace are doomed to fail. And it's not like the US has been particularly successful in that regard anywhere else in the world, ever.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

Cain

Vietnam is actually on very good terms with the US nowadays.  They're concerned about China, so the US is lavishing arms on them and they're effectively a US ally in all but name.

South Korea and Japan are also quite reliant on US military protection, so if the US is hellbent on a military strike, they will fall in line publicly.

The bigger issue is China.  They dont have any real influence over North Korea anymore, not without using brute force methods - like cutting off food/fuel - which are likely to backfire on them and make them a more likely target for North Korean craziness.  China likes having North Korea as a buffer and as a potential threat against US allies in the region, but they're very aware of how unpredictable they can be, and how weak their influence over them really is.  But on the other hand, China profits from overall international stability, which North Korea is not contributing to.  China would also like to be able to access the mineral rich North Korea at some future point and profit from its mineral wealth - presumably as some kind of trade deal, development and access to international markets for raw goods kind of thing, which would see China assuming it's historically traditional role of "big brother" to (North) Korea.

But that's putting a potentially bright future against a more uncertain present.  And of course attempts to overthrow the entire regime would no doubt end in a lawless zone of failed state violence right on China's border.  So China will be risk-adverse in this scenario. 

Of course, it is entirely possible North Korea is doing this as some sort of bargaining chip, and wants to see what China will offer in return for decommissioning the missile program or whatever.  It's possible.  However, they do confer a sizeable military advanatage on North Korea, reliability aside, and given North Korea is basically run by the generals, this may outweigh all other considerations.

Cain

I suspect if we do see military action here by the US, it will be some kind of limited (ish) strike, to try and destroy their currently existing weapons and infrastructure to create them.  Then the work would be to find out who is helping them develop this program (almost certainly Pakistan and Burma.  I'm calling it now) and prevent them from supplying them with replacement parts.

But who the fuck knows what Trump is thinking at any given moment.  Not even Trump, I suspect.

MithridatesXXIII

I would have said that a US strike against nk would be out of the question, but I think the priority has shifted or will to prevent nk from setting a precedent by asserting their sovereignty in this fashion.

As far as their rocket technology goes, I'd love for it to come out that each failure was concealment of the debugging of various systems in isolation, and that they are much further along than we'd believe.

00.dusk

Quote from: Cain on April 16, 2017, 05:38:36 PM
I suspect if we do see military action here by the US, it will be some kind of limited (ish) strike, to try and destroy their currently existing weapons and infrastructure to create them.  Then the work would be to find out who is helping them develop this program (almost certainly Pakistan and Burma.  I'm calling it now) and prevent them from supplying them with replacement parts.

But who the fuck knows what Trump is thinking at any given moment.  Not even Trump, I suspect.

Good call on Burma. I don't understand Pakistan, but understand if you can't go into further detail there.

Cain

I also think a US strike would be an extreme response, but I feel it is much less out of the question now then it would have been a year ago. 

It's not "proven", but it's long been suspected and claimed that Pakistan sold missile components to North Korea which ended up aiding their nuclear program.

http://world.time.com/2011/07/07/a-q-khans-revelations-did-pakistans-army-sell-nukes-to-north-korea/

Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations for a more general background.  I suspect that relationship is ongoing.

Junkenstein

Quote from: Cain on April 16, 2017, 05:38:36 PM
I suspect if we do see military action here by the US, it will be some kind of limited (ish) strike, to try and destroy their currently existing weapons and infrastructure to create them.  Then the work would be to find out who is helping them develop this program (almost certainly Pakistan and Burma.  I'm calling it now) and prevent them from supplying them with replacement parts.

But who the fuck knows what Trump is thinking at any given moment.  Not even Trump, I suspect.

Doubt even idiot is stupid/bold enough to attack anything without explicit support and assistance from China which he won't get due to reasons you outlined. The risk/reward just doesn't stack up to make it worthwhile. Would guess quality Intel is non existent so even picking targets becomes a huge challenge, chance of hitting civilians is massive and plays directly to nk propaganda goals.

Burma/Pakistan, I'd agree to be like supporters, would not rule out Russian technical assistance. Have a hunch on Malaysia as intermediary supplier. Would not be surprised at Iran links due to common problems with the US and "enemy of my enemy" thinking/similar long term goals.

Bargaining chip scenario seems probable, remember the story recently about China ditching nk coal? Bet that is what's driving lots of this.
Nine naked Men just walking down the road will cause a heap of trouble for all concerned.

MithridatesXXIII

North Korea will always have their giant meth operation

Cain

I was interested if North Korea's meth and heroin operation had a Pakistani component, given the role of the ISI in transferring it out of Afghanistan, but apparently it comes from over the border in China.  Which would make more sense.