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IMPORTANT ANNOUCEMENT: CURRENT GLOBAL WARMING MODEL IS A LIE

Started by Lies, September 06, 2010, 04:12:39 PM

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Kai

Quote from: Doktor Princess on September 07, 2010, 04:46:25 AM
Quote from: Kai on September 07, 2010, 03:23:00 AM
Quote from: Lysergic on September 07, 2010, 02:40:39 AM
Quote from: Kai on September 06, 2010, 08:56:56 PM
Quote from: Lysergic on September 06, 2010, 04:12:39 PM
What you think you know about global warming is all a sham!! Global warming isn't caused by greenhouse gases and solar variation, it's caused by politicians and conspiracy theorists who keep spewing hot air out when they won't shut up and start listening to reason.

My professor, this morning:
Quote
Recently, some have taken to calling this the Anthropocene Epoch, from the greek for "recent human period". And it's quite obvious why this is, the effects of humans on ecosystems and landscapes is geologically significant. Climate change goes along with this hand in hand. There has been much controversy about this, whether you subscribe to Sean Hannity on the Right or Al Gore on the Left, but the pattern is there regardless of the level of human involvement.

Reminds me of how when ecology and biology advance and find that evolution is not only natural selection but also genetic drift, the creationists latch onto this as "evolution is wrong", yet the correction is STILL WITHIN the realm of descent with modification. Just like with the Theory of General Relativity, it did not suddenly render the heliocentric model obsolete. So too with the above.

Yeah, this is exactly my point, I have friends who don't believe global warming is real and think it's a fucking conspiracy or something, they think *I'm* the crazy one for believing it's happening, and yeah, I don't hold a firm position on whether it is human influenced or not, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be taking steps to do our best to prepare for/prevent it, right?

Climate change is happening. It's pretty clear that humans have some precentage of blame. However, even if it is not clear just how much we are contributing, that STILL works within the framework that climate change is happening. I can't remember the exact phrasing that Yudowsky used to describe this sort of situation, but it was along those lines.

Last hypothetical model I saw it was something like humans were only responsible for 30% of the climate change, the rest being The Earth and Sun doing their thang.

:cn:
If there is magic on this planet, it is contained in water. --Loren Eisley, The Immense Journey

Her Royal Majesty's Chief of Insect Genitalia Dissection
Grand Visser of the Six Legged Class
Chanticleer of the Holometabola Clade Church, Diptera Parish

Adios

I bow to the better educated on this issue. My research results in howling monkeys.

Sop to you educated, obviously humans a a part of climate change. Any solid ideas as to what percentage?

Kai, you maintain that it is still with normal ranges. What are the norms here?

Rumckle

The way I see it, if climate change is going to be bad or not, there are still two strong arguments for other energy sources:

1) Putting extra CO2 into the air can't at all be good for it.
2) We will run out of coal/gas/whatever eventually, we should probably start doing something about that now.

Then I remember the monkeys in charge are short-term thinking, idiots.
It's not trolling, it's just satire.

Faust

Quote from: Charley Brown on September 07, 2010, 12:31:44 PM
I bow to the better educated on this issue. My research results in howling monkeys.

Sop to you educated, obviously humans a a part of climate change. Any solid ideas as to what percentage?

Kai, you maintain that it is still with normal ranges. What are the norms here?

Honestly you CANT put a percentage on it. Climate change is a multivariate umbrella of different occurrences. For instance in cities and the like you can say we have a very large percentage influence on that areas overall climate (pollution, urban sprawl, loss of wild life).

You would use a completely different criteria when judging something like the sea, or atmospheric gasses, or my pet hate: the overall temperatures of the world, it goes up and down in areas depending on the effect of the climate change.

The human influence can only be accurately measured by comparing each area over time taking into account natural and human causes of climate change, and summing up the lot. As this only really became an issue in the last 30 - 50 years its very difficult to assess the data on hand and say if something is caused by man or nature.
Sleepless nights at the chateau

tyrannosaurus vex

My understanding of Global Warming Climate Change as of this moment:

1. Humans put a lot of bullshit into the environment that not only directly releases greenhouse gases but also kills off life forms that counteract said gases.

2. A good-sized volcanic eruption can spew more of such bullshit into the environment in the space of a few days than Humans have done in our entire history.

3. Therefore whatever we do to counteract Climate Change should be to minimize our impact on the environment without making the mistake of believing that we are somehow in control of the whole show, and we should put more emphasis on preparing and adapting to new climatic realities than on trying to do away with climate change completely.

4. Al Gore is a douchebag, and so is Sean Hannity.
Evil and Unfeeling Arse-Flenser From The City of the Damned.

Doktor Howl

I'm taking the dinosaur approach...IE, I'm going to stomp everyone that bothers me with this shit IRL, and not care.
Molon Lube

Suu

Quote from: Kai on September 07, 2010, 12:26:34 PM
Quote from: Doktor Princess on September 07, 2010, 04:46:25 AM
Quote from: Kai on September 07, 2010, 03:23:00 AM
Quote from: Lysergic on September 07, 2010, 02:40:39 AM
Quote from: Kai on September 06, 2010, 08:56:56 PM
Quote from: Lysergic on September 06, 2010, 04:12:39 PM
What you think you know about global warming is all a sham!! Global warming isn't caused by greenhouse gases and solar variation, it's caused by politicians and conspiracy theorists who keep spewing hot air out when they won't shut up and start listening to reason.

My professor, this morning:
Quote
Recently, some have taken to calling this the Anthropocene Epoch, from the greek for "recent human period". And it's quite obvious why this is, the effects of humans on ecosystems and landscapes is geologically significant. Climate change goes along with this hand in hand. There has been much controversy about this, whether you subscribe to Sean Hannity on the Right or Al Gore on the Left, but the pattern is there regardless of the level of human involvement.

Reminds me of how when ecology and biology advance and find that evolution is not only natural selection but also genetic drift, the creationists latch onto this as "evolution is wrong", yet the correction is STILL WITHIN the realm of descent with modification. Just like with the Theory of General Relativity, it did not suddenly render the heliocentric model obsolete. So too with the above.

Yeah, this is exactly my point, I have friends who don't believe global warming is real and think it's a fucking conspiracy or something, they think *I'm* the crazy one for believing it's happening, and yeah, I don't hold a firm position on whether it is human influenced or not, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be taking steps to do our best to prepare for/prevent it, right?

Climate change is happening. It's pretty clear that humans have some precentage of blame. However, even if it is not clear just how much we are contributing, that STILL works within the framework that climate change is happening. I can't remember the exact phrasing that Yudowsky used to describe this sort of situation, but it was along those lines.

Last hypothetical model I saw it was something like humans were only responsible for 30% of the climate change, the rest being The Earth and Sun doing their thang.

:cn:

Give me a bit to find a link. I know it was in a magazine I was reading at the airport last year, so who the fuck knows what it was in. But I'm sure it's one of dozens of models.
Sovereign Episkopos-Princess Kaousuu; Esq., Battle Nun, Bene Gesserit.
Our Lady of Perpetual Confusion; 1st Church of Discordia

"Add a dab of lavender to milk, leave town with an orange, and pretend you're laughing at it."

Thurnez Isa

Quote from: vexati0n on September 07, 2010, 05:53:28 PM

2. A good-sized volcanic eruption can spew more of such bullshit into the environment in the space of a few days than Humans have done in our entire history.


The CO2 released from volcanoes isn't really that much, especially with the level of volcanic activity that is present today. Where you develop a problem is from break ups of large continents where you have large amounts of CO2 released which remains in the atmosphere for a long time. Volcanic activity is also at a low.
What is more evident is the release of SO2 which can lower sunlight up 30% dropping temperatures for a short period. The eruption at Pinatubo cooled the earth by 0.4 C for around a year. These influences on the environment are easy to spot and are factored into climate models.
Through me the way to the city of woe, Through me the way to everlasting pain, Through me the way among the lost.
Justice moved my maker on high.
Divine power made me, Wisdom supreme, and Primal love.
Before me nothing was but things eternal, and eternal I endure.
Abandon all hope, you who enter here.

Dante

Kai

Quote from: Charley Brown on September 07, 2010, 12:31:44 PM
I bow to the better educated on this issue. My research results in howling monkeys.

Sop to you educated, obviously humans a a part of climate change. Any solid ideas as to what percentage?

Kai, you maintain that it is still with normal ranges. What are the norms here?

I maintain that massive amounts of evidence points to global climate change at an accelerated rate, climatic evidence which I depend upon the climatologists to interpret because I am not a climatologist. I cannot say the exact causes or percentages of cause because I do not have those data nor do I know how to interpret them.

So, climate change is occuring at an accelerated rate. That statement is a belief, ie an anticipation about reality. The corollary is that I don't anticipate (believe) the cause. I don't know. I have several hypotheses which climatologists also have, but I don't know which one(s) are supported or falsified.
If there is magic on this planet, it is contained in water. --Loren Eisley, The Immense Journey

Her Royal Majesty's Chief of Insect Genitalia Dissection
Grand Visser of the Six Legged Class
Chanticleer of the Holometabola Clade Church, Diptera Parish

Adios

Quote from: Kai on September 07, 2010, 08:26:22 PM
Quote from: Charley Brown on September 07, 2010, 12:31:44 PM
I bow to the better educated on this issue. My research results in howling monkeys.

Sop to you educated, obviously humans a a part of climate change. Any solid ideas as to what percentage?

Kai, you maintain that it is still with normal ranges. What are the norms here?

I maintain that massive amounts of evidence points to global climate change at an accelerated rate, climatic evidence which I depend upon the climatologists to interpret because I am not a climatologist. I cannot say the exact causes or percentages of cause because I do not have those data nor do I know how to interpret them.

So, climate change is occuring at an accelerated rate. That statement is a belief, ie an anticipation about reality. The corollary is that I don't anticipate (believe) the cause. I don't know. I have several hypotheses which climatologists also have, but I don't know which one(s) are supported or falsified.

So, in your opinion what will the future look like? Drought?

Doktor Howl

1 monkey pissing in the swimming pool = No problem, the filters will handle it.

6,835,000,000 monkeys pissing in the pool will change its color to roughly that of what Dick Cheney uses for blood.

We're beyond the world's carrying capacity, and climate change is just one of the many hilarious results.  This is the true meaning behind Adam Smith's "Invisible Hand"...Not that the market will magically do the right thing, but rather that reality will eventually kick your teeth in, no matter how much you want to believe that the universe will align itself to your deeply held beliefs.
Molon Lube

ñͤͣ̄ͦ̌̑͗͊͛͂͗ ̸̨̨̣̺̼̣̜͙͈͕̮̊̈́̈͂͛̽͊ͭ̓͆ͅé ̰̓̓́ͯ́́͞

Quote from: Thurnez Isa on September 07, 2010, 07:42:40 PM
Quote from: vexati0n on September 07, 2010, 05:53:28 PM

2. A good-sized volcanic eruption can spew more of such bullshit into the environment in the space of a few days than Humans have done in our entire history.


The CO2 released from volcanoes isn't really that much, especially with the level of volcanic activity that is present today. Where you develop a problem is from break ups of large continents where you have large amounts of CO2 released which remains in the atmosphere for a long time. Volcanic activity is also at a low.
What is more evident is the release of SO2 which can lower sunlight up 30% dropping temperatures for a short period. The eruption at Pinatubo cooled the earth by 0.4 C for around a year. These influences on the environment are easy to spot and are factored into climate models.

Yeah, the Iceland volcano was "carbon neutral" since the planes would have put out that much CO2 if they weren't grounded.

I'd call that eruption pretty good-sized.
P E R   A S P E R A   A D   A S T R A

ñͤͣ̄ͦ̌̑͗͊͛͂͗ ̸̨̨̣̺̼̣̜͙͈͕̮̊̈́̈͂͛̽͊ͭ̓͆ͅé ̰̓̓́ͯ́́͞

Quote from: Kai on September 07, 2010, 08:26:22 PM
Quote from: Charley Brown on September 07, 2010, 12:31:44 PM
I bow to the better educated on this issue. My research results in howling monkeys.

Sop to you educated, obviously humans a a part of climate change. Any solid ideas as to what percentage?

Kai, you maintain that it is still with normal ranges. What are the norms here?

I maintain that massive amounts of evidence points to global climate change at an accelerated rate, climatic evidence which I depend upon the climatologists to interpret because I am not a climatologist. I cannot say the exact causes or percentages of cause because I do not have those data nor do I know how to interpret them.

So, climate change is occuring at an accelerated rate. That statement is a belief, ie an anticipation about reality. The corollary is that I don't anticipate (believe) the cause. I don't know. I have several hypotheses which climatologists also have, but I don't know which one(s) are supported or falsified.

This is the correct motorcycle.

Arguing with a massive group of climatologists who have independently come to the same conclusions seems like the height of hubris.
P E R   A S P E R A   A D   A S T R A

Kai

Quote from: Charley Brown on September 07, 2010, 08:30:06 PM
Quote from: Kai on September 07, 2010, 08:26:22 PM
Quote from: Charley Brown on September 07, 2010, 12:31:44 PM
I bow to the better educated on this issue. My research results in howling monkeys.

Sop to you educated, obviously humans a a part of climate change. Any solid ideas as to what percentage?

Kai, you maintain that it is still with normal ranges. What are the norms here?

I maintain that massive amounts of evidence points to global climate change at an accelerated rate, climatic evidence which I depend upon the climatologists to interpret because I am not a climatologist. I cannot say the exact causes or percentages of cause because I do not have those data nor do I know how to interpret them.

So, climate change is occuring at an accelerated rate. That statement is a belief, ie an anticipation about reality. The corollary is that I don't anticipate (believe) the cause. I don't know. I have several hypotheses which climatologists also have, but I don't know which one(s) are supported or falsified.

So, in your opinion what will the future look like? Drought?

I expect that, given the non-homogeneity of the earth's surface and moisture distribution across that surface, some areas will have drought and some areas will have excess moisture. IOW, change to climate.
If there is magic on this planet, it is contained in water. --Loren Eisley, The Immense Journey

Her Royal Majesty's Chief of Insect Genitalia Dissection
Grand Visser of the Six Legged Class
Chanticleer of the Holometabola Clade Church, Diptera Parish

Pope Pixie Pickle

Quote from: Rumckle on September 07, 2010, 03:22:43 PM
The way I see it, if climate change is going to be bad or not, there are still two strong arguments for other energy sources:

1) Putting extra CO2 into the air can't at all be good for it.
2) We will run out of coal/gas/whatever eventually, we should probably start doing something about that now.

Then I remember the monkeys in charge are short-term thinking, idiots.

This.