Author Topic: Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in  (Read 23607 times)

The Wizard Joseph

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« on: February 29, 2020, 03:39:29 pm »
This thread and topic originated in the Trump Hilarity thread. Things are no longer hilarious. This thing is definitely going to do some game changing damage. Rumors of an engineered origin are unsubtantiated but because of the unusual symptom spectrum and infection rate as well as the not entirely uncertain possibility of post symptomatic latency infection and reoccurrance I cannot discard the possibility at this time. I very much wish I could, but this thing is WEIRD for a coronavirus and quite destructive out of all proportion.

Well, there was a report of someone in Japan who tested positive twice.  I suspect that she either wasn't cured completely, or someone messed up the labwork, but an intermittently lethal virus that humans can't develop a long-term immunity to would be a pretty neat doomsday weapon.

If it doesn't get you the first time, just wait for the next go-around!

I was just reading about this.  Coronavirus immunity doesn't last very long.

But it's not THAT short.  The test was bad?
Quite possibly. Or whatever chemical signature they were looking for was still present post-symptoms

There is a small but real chance it remains dormant in the system post-symptoms, if so it just might reemerge symptomaticly later like impetigo, even be infectious asymptomatic like. This is not my opinion, but if more double positive tests occur it would be a... Bad indication.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

It's much worse than I thought. It causes damage to various organs and systems in a very unpredictable symptom presentation. Incubation ~5 days, 4-7 range reported, coronaviruses can range from 2-14.

A range like that makes it extremely difficult to track from site to site, and I suspect we'll be unable to keep track at all very soon because we already have tertiary cases.

Virus rna shows up in various discharges and fluids as well as active viruses, rna may be detected for weeks after. If folks are testing positive well after symptom cessation this is hopefully why. If they are STILL testing positive for rna a month from now it means they are still producing waste rna. That STRONGLY would imply that the virus is still replicating and infectious. By the time we know it WILL be far too late. If it's still replicating post symptoms it DEFINITELY has a REAL chance of a completely different symptom presentation as it enters otherwise protected systems. It would build up in the body over time potentially breaching the blood-brain barrier. I shudder to think what this fucker would very likely do to your mostly defenseless grey matter.

Cain you said that a bioweapon that presents only a nasty flu would be a let down... If you read the symptom spectrum it's NOT THE FLU BUDDY!

This one is a monster and if it does what my worst fear here implies... It just might be engineered, at first, but will heavily mutate over time into SEVERAL or even DOZENS of unique strains in relatively short order. It may be debilitating, deadly, prolific, and ultimately incurable. I've made a LOT of humanity killers in Plague Inc. This thing has all the right stuff not to wipe out, but to suppress a whole culture with illness and death at great medical cost in what will soon be an environment of limited supply. Stock up on hand sanitizer, masks, and impermeable gloves. They may not save you, but they will soon be very valuable trade goods.

I give it 4 months at a guess, then the political rallies become a deathbed, and they're feeding the idiots dangerous propaganda already, intentionally.

Fuck I hope I'm wrong and this will pass by then, but I SERIOUSLY doubt it. The infection control protocol is basically a medical space suit right down to full facial eye protection. This thing is very upsetting in the best case scenario. The worst case, if I'm right about the latency period and a second symptom expression in the brain, would seem to me a perfect storm by design or chance.

It will make no difference which.
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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #1 on: February 29, 2020, 04:06:10 pm »
what's interesting about this case is that, now that nobody trusts the government (especially the Chinese government) nobody is sure how much panic is appropriate.

this video is worth a watch and provides some good perspective

of course - it was produced by someone who appears to be chinese.  is it just chinese propaganda? 
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The Wizard Joseph

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #2 on: February 29, 2020, 04:39:26 pm »
This is an article with charts showing various economic effects of the virus in China so far.

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/the-economic-effects-of-the-coronavirus/ 


The effect on the US under current conditions will be quite dramatic and along these lines. I have not yet taken the time to analyze the charts, but when I get a chance I'll give my opinions.

There's more

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/global-markets-coronavirus-crash-wipes-%245-trillion-off-world-stocks-2020-02-28

This was just yesterday, one single day. The markets reopen on Monday. Expect more, probably much more. If the US descends into crisis, and this is very likely, the bond market will break as 0 confidence of repayment soars. The US could go broke or even have its economy bought like a Rothschild fire sale. Either way the military complex we support will break down and possibly factionalize. Many super weapons may hit the black market as factions seek funds. It could get pretty fucking bad.

I hate to say this, but bitcoin is sitting at a record low around 8600 and can be traded in for most currencies. Bitcoin would be a wise investment, even just a few if you can. As currency markets drop the cryptocurrency market will rise dramatically. If you just can't stand cryptocurrency on some sort of moralistic grounds shorting the dollar will also work. Failing that strike high valueoptions contracts if you can with long terms of execution. As the currencies drop these will be worth small and not so small fortunes.

This post does not constitute licenced advisement of any sort. Do consider getting ahold of a professional financier to discuss things and execute transactions.

If you are poor buy bottles of Everclear, durable shop towels and regular paper. You will need to do a lot of sanitizing on the cheap. Look into the trade goods listed above. Get a weapon if you can and learn to use it properly. Stay in touch with friends but only meet if absolutely necessary for safety.

At a certain point of infection saturation handling unsanitized cash will become risky. Wear gloves if you don't know it's clean for a fact. Keep it in a sealed container. A few hours of direct sunlight should work if you have no other means of sanitization. Expose both sides. Expect lots of desperate people in the US with plenty of guns and good reason not to let you get within 12 feet.

More as things progress.
Hope for the best.
Expect the worst.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
 - Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

The Wizard Joseph

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #3 on: February 29, 2020, 05:10:15 pm »
what's interesting about this case is that, now that nobody trusts the government (especially the Chinese government) nobody is sure how much panic is appropriate.

this video is worth a watch and provides some good perspective

of course - it was produced by someone who appears to be chinese.  is it just chinese propaganda?
No panic is appropriate.
Much panic will happen.
This isn't China's plot,
If there is one at all.
You fail to fully grasp
The fullness of the situation.
Not tryna dis you,
But keep studying.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
 - Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #4 on: February 29, 2020, 05:24:18 pm »
i'm one of the american citizens with plenty of guns - and my nearest neighbors are 100 acres away.

i fully expect to get sick as I have kids in school tho.

i have what i think is a reasonable cache of food stored up and my chickens poop out more eggs everyday.

the stock market looks like it may be done with it's initial panic as yesterday it was pretty flat.

i agree it's not wise to be over confident, but i also think it may be being blown out of proportion.

Do you think there is any merit to the notion that the disease disproportionately affects asians due to their genetic predisposition to have more ACE-2 receptors or something to that effect?

for anectdotal evidence, my american friend that lives in shanghai is reporting that things are getting better and people are going back to work on a limited basis.  my american friend that lives in japan has reported that schools are closing down - for up to a month. 

my cheap chinese doohickey that I ordered off amazon January 19th arrived in the mail a couple days ago (5 weeks)
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The Wizard Joseph

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #5 on: February 29, 2020, 05:26:52 pm »
Watched the video.
It's pure sophistry.
The infection rate
Rises way too fast
Disproportionate
To even swine flu.
Then they show you death,
Death of every kind.
And it puts the spike
In back of your mind.
I think it means to
Kill us by means of
Illegitimate,
False comparative,
Fatal Deception.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
 - Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #6 on: February 29, 2020, 05:40:58 pm »
well that's a bummer
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The Wizard Joseph

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2020, 05:55:30 am »
well that's a bummer
Yeah. I figure that if the second presentation thing comes to pass I need to be ready for it, so I must plan and organize like it will. I really tired of this heavy death trip I seem to be on. Now by reading a technical document I mostly understand and seeing the data I am forced to inform and act, but it must be done wisely. Godspeed everyone. I'll keep digging tomorrow.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
 - Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

Cain

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2020, 02:01:02 pm »
Quote
Do you think there is any merit to the notion that the disease disproportionately affects asians due to their genetic predisposition to have more ACE-2 receptors or something to that effect?

The disease is also reported to disproportionately affect smokers. It's worth noting that China, in particular, has a LOT of smokers. Male smoking rates in South Korea are also usually high by the standards of developed economies. It's also been reported that men are more easily infected than women, and in both countries it is mostly men who smoke.

It's not definitive, of course, but it is an interesting data point.

chaotic neutral observer

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2020, 04:13:52 pm »
I hate to say this, but bitcoin is sitting at a record low around 8600 and can be traded in for most currencies. Bitcoin would be a wise investment, even just a few if you can. As currency markets drop the cryptocurrency market will rise dramatically.
Bitcoin doesn't seem to have figured out if it wants to be a currency, a long-term investment, or a store of value.  Aside from its built-in liquidity problems, I'm not convinced there's an outcome where I'm better off holding a USB-key worth of bitcoins rather than a wallet full of coloured paper.

Gold has some of the same problems (and advantages) as bitcoin, but it isn't dependent on third-party unregulated infrastructure to be traded, and is less susceptible to blinking out of existence.  (Not that I'm rushing out to buy bullion, either).

Quote
If you just can't stand cryptocurrency on some sort of moralistic grounds shorting the dollar will also work.
Short the dollar against what?
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The Wizard Joseph

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2020, 04:35:19 pm »
I hate to say this, but bitcoin is sitting at a record low around 8600 and can be traded in for most currencies. Bitcoin would be a wise investment, even just a few if you can. As currency markets drop the cryptocurrency market will rise dramatically.
Bitcoin doesn't seem to have figured out if it wants to be a currency, a long-term investment, or a store of value.  Aside from its built-in liquidity problems, I'm not convinced there's an outcome where I'm better off holding a USB-key worth of bitcoins rather than a wallet full of coloured paper.

Gold has some of the same problems (and advantages) as bitcoin, but it isn't dependent on third-party unregulated infrastructure to be traded, and is less susceptible to blinking out of existence.  (Not that I'm rushing out to buy bullion, either).

Quote
If you just can't stand cryptocurrency on some sort of moralistic grounds shorting the dollar will also work.
Short the dollar against what?
Fuck you're right. All of the currencies drop then there's nothing to short it against. I'm used to thinking about forex as X against the dollar. I misspoke. The options thing should still work, but if all the currencies drop there's nothing to hold value.

Thanks for pointing that out.

Bullion or bit coin should not be your primary investment. Either could prove extremely useful, but trade goods are going to be what you want. Nobody notices an extra bottle of sanitizer here, a few masks there. Gold particularly will get noticed. That would be inadvisable.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
 - Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2020, 08:52:43 pm »
Quote
Do you think there is any merit to the notion that the disease disproportionately affects asians due to their genetic predisposition to have more ACE-2 receptors or something to that effect?

The disease is also reported to disproportionately affect smokers. It's worth noting that China, in particular, has a LOT of smokers. Male smoking rates in South Korea are also usually high by the standards of developed economies. It's also been reported that men are more easily infected than women, and in both countries it is mostly men who smoke.

It's not definitive, of course, but it is an interesting data point.

yes, i had heard that smoking was a factor and that china has a lot of smokers.  also - the pollution is much worse there, I believe.  I think there are a lot more men in china due to the one child policy - so that may be skewing the infection rate by gender numbers.

one bonus i read is that you supposedly don't get a runny/stuffy nose from this virus. i hate a cold where you're constantly blowing your nose.
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Cain

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2020, 09:53:54 pm »
Quote
I think there are a lot more men in china due to the one child policy - so that may be skewing the infection rate by gender numbers.

Yeah, that's definitely a good call as well.

The Wizard Joseph

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2020, 12:19:40 am »
The smoking thing is simple. Smokers tend to touch their faces more and you can't smoke with a respirator or facemask in place. The males thing may be cultural in men being more likely to attempt to disobey government orders and otherwise be risk takers. The one child thing is probably only slightly skewing the data from multiple countries at this point. I am quite concerned about the animal vector.

See if it can infect animals maybe it can infect other microbes. When they say "novel" coronavirus it means previously unobserved form. It means that the virus is unknown to public science. It might just be able to trojan in on other microbes your body considers benign. The fucker has no observed place in nature and a coronavirus "chassis" in a sense, but one never seen before.

I hear that the meat market that was ground zero was across from a bio research firm possibly doing research that would be illegal in the US for certain... Entities. Even if it's not an actual weapon, even a loose research tool engineered outside of nature would have a field day if let loose by accident or design as ALL cellular structures and immune systems would be novel to IT and potential sources of mutation. Thing is viruses are only really useful for rewriting genetic code. If it's an escaped tool it might actually be worse than a bio weapon. Bio weapons generally burn out on their own mortality rate and run out of live hosts, which are usually human only.

This thing is quite possibly some form of bio industrial hazardous material. It could in fact be much more dangerous than a bio weapon.

It's NOVEL and they're hiding something about it from the public about it. I suspect that the truth fully known might undo the social order very quickly.

Found out Wisconsin has
*checks notes*
Exactly one confirmed case that tested negative twice and was released two days ago. They tested like 16 people in their life and found only one positive result. I'll keep an eye out, but am glad to hear of at least one double negative test. It means that the virus will probably pass. Probably. If it's truly novel because it's engineered for research each human host will be a somewhat different environment, potentially a source of novel mutation. Mutation and reinfection data will just have to see how it progresses.

The mechanism of mortality is still not publicly known, but folks just fell over in the streets in Wuhan.  People are not necessarily succumbing to symptoms. A small percentage just fall over one day where they stand. That alone is a horrible sign.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
 - Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl

The Wizard Joseph

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Re: Coronavirus data and events as they come in
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2020, 12:56:33 am »
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ycrqXJYf1SU

Watching this now.
Watch this NOW!!
It's mandatory history.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

"Ayn Rand never swung a hammer in her life and had serious dominance issues" - The Fountainhead

"World domination is such an ugly phrase. I prefer to call it world optimisation."
 - Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

"It's not even chaos anymore. It's BANAL."
- Doktor Hamish Howl