Author Topic: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?  (Read 155783 times)

Doktor Howl

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1245 on: March 21, 2019, 01:23:44 am »
I'm fairly certain the EU tactic now is to allow no deal to happen, asset stripping commences, either the UK comes back either looking for Mays deal or full customs union without the backstop.
11% or 1tn pounds of the asset management portfolio is moving out of the UK and that is now regardless of brexit happening or not, they cant wait any longer
https://www.ft.com/content/016171be-4a74-11e9-8b7f-d49067e0f50d
I would expect these to increase after no deal occurs.

Anyone that waits until no deal is horribly fucked and too stupid to handle money.
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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1246 on: March 21, 2019, 07:24:58 am »
Parliament literally doesn't understand how businesss work, despite Tory fetishisation of them.

"Companies have to order things and plan in advance?! REMOANER WRECKERS!"

Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1247 on: March 21, 2019, 08:03:12 am »
People in downing street frantically googling "What is a supply chain", followed by "gravity of trade" followed by "what to stockpile in a zombie apocalypse"

I dont know if I agree that the EU would be stupid to allow no deal to happen. Firstly they have no choice, Ireland will veto any deal without the backstop, and second they have been open about their requirements all along.

There's this constant attempt to recontextualise the problem as the EUs to solve,  IE the UK wants it to drop the backstop which wont happen,  no deal is preferrable. If no deal is to happen it better be without extension then prolonging this further.
It may be the only way the UK realises the backstop is non negotiable and will be waiting should they ever want a trade deal,  security deal,  medical research collab, or to restore the flow of goods in and out.
Item 1 on the agenda will always be the backstop. In five years,  ten,  thirty. It will be similar to the Greece/Turkey veto.
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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1248 on: March 21, 2019, 08:33:14 am »
What is this backstop you speak of? Not being cheeky. I literally have no idea what you mean.
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Faust

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1249 on: March 21, 2019, 09:57:43 am »
What is this backstop you speak of? Not being cheeky. I literally have no idea what you mean.

Crash course Northern Ireland:
Catholics in Northern Ireland had for decades been treated as second class citizens which led to guerilla warfare by the IRA and a whole list of atrocities committed by
The IRA (Republican, see themselves as Irish) Bombings, shootings, disappearances
UVF (Loyalist, see themselves as British)  Bombings, shootings, disappearances
The British Army (used to keep the peace, occasionally fucked up and intentionally or accidentally shot innocent people and children)

Eventually everyone got sick of a war without end.
In 1998, The UK and Ireland (with the US and EU as guarantor) signed a peace treaty called The Good Friday agreement. In short it ended a lot of issues by recognizing the rights of republicans in NI as Irish. Specifically the text is "The right to live as British, Irish or both".
This had the following effects:
Borders were dismantled
The army removed
Ireland removed its claim to Northern Ireland (which it had had since the formation of the state)
The IRA disarmed
People stopped being killed
No one was satisfied or happy but compromised for a lasting peace

This was largely possible because both Ireland and the UK were part of the same customs territory, which deviation would require the introduction of a border.
To the UK a border is just a practicality of mantaining taxation, regulation on goods
To Ireland and the Irish in NI, it is a symbol of division, a symbolic Berlin wall

Negotiation:
At the start of these negotiations, Ireland insisted that the UK uphold the Good Friday agreement, this was handwaved away, a response the UK has had for Ireland for centuries. This time something was different. As the Nation most effected by Brexit the EU said "Hang on, we need to sort this out first."
In 2017 The Tory government committed that yes northern Ireland would not be a problem.
The EU put that in a legal text, first proposed as NI directly stay in the Customs Union, which the DUP, a Northern Irish Unionist group (A set of ten time travelers from the 1600's who somehow hold the UK governments balance of power) balked at this.
May evaded committing to this legal text until 2018, it became "the backstop", where Northern Ireland stays in the EU customs union if no other solution is found.
She eventually agreed to this in principle with the EU.
It was shot to pieces when she brought the agreement back to parliament. It is seen as an attempt to Annex Northern Ireland, or by extension control the UK after it leaves the EU. Which I do kind of understand, but the alternative means ripping up a peace treaty.
In reality all Ireland has requested is that NI stay exactly as it is now, Uphold the existing commitment to the Good Friday agreement.

Since then there have been attempts to instead time limit the backstop (IE that it just expires after an amount of time, and then the GFA is reneged on and a border put in place). Ireland has rejected this, as have the EU.
Since then a game of chicken has been played where the UK has assumed that the EU would eventually throw Ireland under the bus and time limit the backstop.
Even if the EU does, to ratify any trade agreement it requires a unanimous vote: Which Ireland will veto. There are still some people who think Ireland will blink, which is unlikely, if our government compromise they will be seen to have betrayed the people of Northern Ireland, at best they would never be voted in again ( I cant understate how important this issue is to the average person).
Therefore the only outcomes that remained were "No deal", "Cancel brexit" or "Reconsider this rejected agreement"

The potential consequences of no deal are:
Worldwide economic collapse (unlikely)
Recession in the EU (probable)
10-20 year economic depression in the UK (Likely in any outcome, including taking the deal, but is estimated at 10% of GDP in no deal)
Food shortages for the UK (unlikely, but possible)
Medical shortage (likely, the UK falls out of the regulatory framework for these unless it adopts all of the EU standards)
Energy disputes (Eirgrid own the grid infrastructure of northern Ireland, and without a dispute mechanism in place for resolving energy payments  they will be requiring energy payments for NI in advance, if not NI could face power outages) (likely)
And most significantly supply chains in the UK which rely on Just in time or have goods that perish could go from a number of hours through the channel tunnel to days. (likely)
That's off the top of my head.

If an economic collapse of the same magnitude of Lehaman brothers is the outcome of no deal brexit, it is a demonstration of why peace in Northern Ireland is so important.  Economic chaos is the price to be paid to uphold that commitment to the rights of the people of Northern Ireland and to protect the peace treaty.

In a warped sense of satisfaction, (and this is where I want people to warn me if I have been drinking the nationalist coolaid) for 80 years Northern Ireland has been Ireland's problem, and it has been dismissed and dismissed.
Now its Everyone's problem.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2019, 10:01:07 am by Faust »
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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1250 on: March 21, 2019, 11:54:27 am »

In a warped sense of satisfaction, (and this is where I want people to warn me if I have been drinking the nationalist coolaid) for 80 years Northern Ireland has been Ireland's problem, and it has been dismissed and dismissed.
Now its Everyone's problem.

Personally, I get it I think.

It’s not the same thing at all, but I look at it how trans rights went from “a few freaks no one cares about” to “major social issue” over the course of about two years.

Yeah, it put me in more danger in the medium term, because horrible little goblins are aware I exist and intend to punish me for it, but it isn’t something just me and the 15 internet people I know talk about now, now everyone needs to give a fuck about it one way or the other.

Just finally having all of the bullshit you’ve put up with in relative secrecy out in the open is liberating, even if everything is going to catch fire around it. I think you’re fine.
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Doktor Howl

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1251 on: March 21, 2019, 12:32:15 pm »
I think Faust is being a little optimistic about the effects on the EU and world economy.
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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1252 on: March 21, 2019, 12:50:09 pm »
I think Faust is being a little optimistic about the effects on the EU and world economy.

How bad do you expect?
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Doktor Howl

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1253 on: March 21, 2019, 01:05:34 pm »
I think Faust is being a little optimistic about the effects on the EU and world economy.

How bad do you expect?

1929 destroyed 5% of the world's GDP.

This will destroy 6%.

Fleeing capital not included, one trillion pounds will vanish at the stroke of midnight.
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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1254 on: March 21, 2019, 02:30:28 pm »
I wouldn't say optimistic, but there are temporary emergency measures in place for 9 months, if the big ooops is going to come it is going to come then. If it wasn't for them I would say it is likely to happen next week.
That said, you could see 9 months of people frantically divesting from the UK economy and moving it elsewhere so worldwide recession is probable.
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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1255 on: March 21, 2019, 02:59:39 pm »

In a warped sense of satisfaction, (and this is where I want people to warn me if I have been drinking the nationalist coolaid) for 80 years Northern Ireland has been Ireland's problem, and it has been dismissed and dismissed.
Now its Everyone's problem.

Personally, I get it I think.

It’s not the same thing at all, but I look at it how trans rights went from “a few freaks no one cares about” to “major social issue” over the course of about two years.

Yeah, it put me in more danger in the medium term, because horrible little goblins are aware I exist and intend to punish me for it, but it isn’t something just me and the 15 internet people I know talk about now, now everyone needs to give a fuck about it one way or the other.

Just finally having all of the bullshit you’ve put up with in relative secrecy out in the open is liberating, even if everything is going to catch fire around it. I think you’re fine.
I don't have a frame of context not being trans myself, but years of being marginalised and rebuffed, or concerns dismissed as irrelevant, yes it is that sense of relief that should everything go down the shitter now, it is impossible to ignore any further.
Narrator: In time you will know the tragic extent of my failings

May you find your worth in the waking world.

Cain

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1256 on: March 21, 2019, 06:28:21 pm »
People in downing street frantically googling "What is a supply chain", followed by "gravity of trade" followed by "what to stockpile in a zombie apocalypse"

If only.  They were too busy making a video to own Parliament and spam on Facebook of her speech last night.

I wish I were making this up.

The Wizard Joseph

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1257 on: March 21, 2019, 07:00:49 pm »
What is this backstop you speak of? Not being cheeky. I literally have no idea what you mean.

Crash course Northern Ireland:
Catholics in Northern Ireland had for decades been treated as second class citizens which led to guerilla warfare by the IRA and a whole list of atrocities committed by
The IRA (Republican, see themselves as Irish) Bombings, shootings, disappearances
UVF (Loyalist, see themselves as British)  Bombings, shootings, disappearances
The British Army (used to keep the peace, occasionally fucked up and intentionally or accidentally shot innocent people and children)

Eventually everyone got sick of a war without end.
In 1998, The UK and Ireland (with the US and EU as guarantor) signed a peace treaty called The Good Friday agreement. In short it ended a lot of issues by recognizing the rights of republicans in NI as Irish. Specifically the text is "The right to live as British, Irish or both".
This had the following effects:
Borders were dismantled
The army removed
Ireland removed its claim to Northern Ireland (which it had had since the formation of the state)
The IRA disarmed
People stopped being killed
No one was satisfied or happy but compromised for a lasting peace

This was largely possible because both Ireland and the UK were part of the same customs territory, which deviation would require the introduction of a border.
To the UK a border is just a practicality of mantaining taxation, regulation on goods
To Ireland and the Irish in NI, it is a symbol of division, a symbolic Berlin wall

Negotiation:
At the start of these negotiations, Ireland insisted that the UK uphold the Good Friday agreement, this was handwaved away, a response the UK has had for Ireland for centuries. This time something was different. As the Nation most effected by Brexit the EU said "Hang on, we need to sort this out first."
In 2017 The Tory government committed that yes northern Ireland would not be a problem.
The EU put that in a legal text, first proposed as NI directly stay in the Customs Union, which the DUP, a Northern Irish Unionist group (A set of ten time travelers from the 1600's who somehow hold the UK governments balance of power) balked at this.
May evaded committing to this legal text until 2018, it became "the backstop", where Northern Ireland stays in the EU customs union if no other solution is found.
She eventually agreed to this in principle with the EU.
It was shot to pieces when she brought the agreement back to parliament. It is seen as an attempt to Annex Northern Ireland, or by extension control the UK after it leaves the EU. Which I do kind of understand, but the alternative means ripping up a peace treaty.
In reality all Ireland has requested is that NI stay exactly as it is now, Uphold the existing commitment to the Good Friday agreement.

Since then there have been attempts to instead time limit the backstop (IE that it just expires after an amount of time, and then the GFA is reneged on and a border put in place). Ireland has rejected this, as have the EU.
Since then a game of chicken has been played where the UK has assumed that the EU would eventually throw Ireland under the bus and time limit the backstop.
Even if the EU does, to ratify any trade agreement it requires a unanimous vote: Which Ireland will veto. There are still some people who think Ireland will blink, which is unlikely, if our government compromise they will be seen to have betrayed the people of Northern Ireland, at best they would never be voted in again ( I cant understate how important this issue is to the average person).
Therefore the only outcomes that remained were "No deal", "Cancel brexit" or "Reconsider this rejected agreement"

The potential consequences of no deal are:
Worldwide economic collapse (unlikely)
Recession in the EU (probable)
10-20 year economic depression in the UK (Likely in any outcome, including taking the deal, but is estimated at 10% of GDP in no deal)
Food shortages for the UK (unlikely, but possible)
Medical shortage (likely, the UK falls out of the regulatory framework for these unless it adopts all of the EU standards)
Energy disputes (Eirgrid own the grid infrastructure of northern Ireland, and without a dispute mechanism in place for resolving energy payments  they will be requiring energy payments for NI in advance, if not NI could face power outages) (likely)
And most significantly supply chains in the UK which rely on Just in time or have goods that perish could go from a number of hours through the channel tunnel to days. (likely)
That's off the top of my head.

If an economic collapse of the same magnitude of Lehaman brothers is the outcome of no deal brexit, it is a demonstration of why peace in Northern Ireland is so important.  Economic chaos is the price to be paid to uphold that commitment to the rights of the people of Northern Ireland and to protect the peace treaty.

In a warped sense of satisfaction, (and this is where I want people to warn me if I have been drinking the nationalist coolaid) for 80 years Northern Ireland has been Ireland's problem, and it has been dismissed and dismissed.
Now its Everyone's problem.
Okay thanks Faust. I think I get it better now.
You can't get out backward.  You have to go forward to go back.. better press on! - Willie Wonka, PBUH

Life can be seen as a game with no reset button, no extra lives, and if the power goes out there is no restarting.  If that's all you see life as you are not long for this world, and never will get it.

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 - Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality :lulz:

"You program the controller to do the thing, only it doesn't do the thing.  It does something else entirely, or nothing at all.  It's like voting."
- Billy, Aug 21st, 2019

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1258 on: March 21, 2019, 11:06:43 pm »
That brought things re: Brexit into a whole new focus for me. Thanks!
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Doktor Howl

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Re: UK General Election 8th June: Shake it all about?
« Reply #1259 on: March 21, 2019, 11:38:05 pm »
Looks like a stay of execution.
"Daisy had syphilis, Tom died of genital warts, and Nick Carroway watched it all in mounting horror, then made off with the silverware and the maid."
~ The Good Reverend

Evil doesn't work without good people. Good people will do the most repugnant, nasty shit for what they think are "the right reasons"