Its all kicking off in downtown Cairo...

[Cain]

Looks like Mubarak has settled on the Tianneman option after all.

After using plains clothes officers, army members still loyal to the regime and paid thugs to go on a rampage of looting (designed to increase the levels of chaos associated with the protestors, thus bringing about calls for order), letting prisoners loose (allegedly) and locking down the government buildings, it seems Interior Ministry and loyalist paramiliarties are moving in for the kill.

As far as I can see, the military are still unwilling to attack the protestors, or let anyone else do so.  Someone organized some very effective flank protection with metal shields for the protestors, and an APC shot tracers over pro-Mubarak lines, presumably to scare them off.

It isn't looking good though.  Seems like pretty much everyone in Tahrir Square is injured in some way or another, and protestors have started stockpiling rocks for a counterattack.  The mood is being described as fatalistic and they're convinced Mubarak is sending in the stormtroopers to eliminate them all.

[Nephew Twiddleton]

Looks like Mubarak has settled on the Tianneman option after all.

After using plains clothes officers, army members still loyal to the regime and paid thugs to go on a rampage of looting (designed to increase the levels of chaos associated with the protestors, thus bringing about calls for order), letting prisoners loose (allegedly) and locking down the government buildings, it seems Interior Ministry and loyalist paramiliarties are moving in for the kill.

As far as I can see, the military are still unwilling to attack the protestors, or let anyone else do so.  Someone organized some very effective flank protection with metal shields for the protestors, and an APC shot tracers over pro-Mubarak lines, presumably to scare them off.

It isn't looking good though.  Seems like pretty much everyone in Tahrir Square is injured in some way or another, and protestors have started stockpiling rocks for a counterattack.  The mood is being described as fatalistic and they're convinced Mubarak is sending in the stormtroopers to eliminate them all.

I hope it turns out alright, but I have no expectations that it will

[Cain]

You know, it just occurs to me that the Egyptian Army may have played everyone here.  Their man, Omar Suleiman (military intelligence) is now Vice-President, and much more popular than the heir apparent, Gamal Mubarak, who ran away to London with his tail inbetween his legs.  The Americans are giving public platitudes to them.  The protestors and the international community at large respect them.  They locked down the protests into a peaceful street occupation at a time when it looked like they might be heading to occupy ministry buildings, and they let the paramilitary thugs and hired guns of Mubarak pass their military checkpoints.

Everything is revolving around them, making them the fulcrum of power in this situation.

[Phox]

You know, it just occurs to me that the Egyptian Army may have played everyone here.  Their man, Omar Suleiman (military intelligence) is now Vice-President, and much more popular than the heir apparent, Gamal Mubarak, who ran away to London with his tail inbetween his legs.  The Americans are giving public platitudes to them.  The protestors and the international community at large respect them.  They locked down the protests into a peaceful street occupation at a time when it looked like they might be heading to occupy ministry buildings, and they let the paramilitary thugs and hired guns of Mubarak pass their military checkpoints.

Everything is revolving around them, making them the fulcrum of power in this situation.

Seeing how it all plays out will be interesting indeed.

[LMNO]

That's a pretty good point, Cain.  Do you mind if I pass that on?

[Cain]

Not at all.  Some Mid-East specialists I know have already suggested this is the case (as usual, when you want a professional and unbiased region or country-specific opinion, associate political science and history professors are the ones to ask), and while I was reluctant to accept it at first, a more general overview of last night's violence suggest this is the case.

It's still very much up in the air as to whether the April 6th Movement can regain momentum and win over sympathetic military officers, and how badly this has damaged Mubarak's regime.  Egypt is heavily dependent on trade through the Suez, foreign investment and tourism, all of which have been hit by this protest.  The regime may well still be on its final feet, though it may take years for anyone to realize it.

It's worth remembering the French revolution didn't just happen overnight either, but was a culmination of months and years of sporadic uprisings and activities.

[Requia ☣]

Gee, 'this might resemble the french revolution' isn't a terrifying thought at all 

[Jenne]

I was thinking about this "peaceful military solution" in just that light yesterday, Cain.  They have won the "hearts and minds" worldwide in their sympathetic turn--but who's to say they won't use it to their own advantage, as short of a coup, what could carry off the dictator who refuses to leave?

[Verbal Mike]

Oy.

Apparently, the army is now stopping from citizens to go into the square to help the wounded.

This doth not bode well.

Oy.

Source?

Sorry, had to go out shortly after that and was AFK all of yesterday. Source was live Twitter reports. The situation has since evolved in ways that aren't clear to me.

[Verbal Mike]

It doesn't seem like the protesters are in any way relenting, and safety in numbers is apparently keeping Mubarak's thugs from doing anything about it.
I think Mubarak's "I would leave, I'm sick of this, I just can't leave because of the chaos it would cause" (which I understand he said yesterday) is probably only half true. He's saying it so things can calm down and he can wrangle the country back into a form that suits him. Since he followed up his promises of Tuesday night with guys on horses wielding sticks, I doubt anyone is buying anything he says anymore.

The whole thing might get drawn on for a while unless the army intervenes. Indeed it seems whatever side the army takes wins automatically. But a Tiananmen-esque solution seems to me unlikely with such massive protests (they can't very well shoot down whole percentage points of the population -- that would ruin the economy for years to come!), so it might just have to end with Mubarak stepping down sooner rather than later, inshallah.

[Cain]

The economy may be the issue that decides it, actually.  The Egyptian economy was never the strongest in the first place, but with all of Cairo basically protesting, no-one is doing work.  Tourists are leaving.  Foreign investors are cautious.

Also, look out if Mubarak starts bringing in help from peasant villages.  That was how Tianneman actually happened, the CCP used soldiers drawn from villages to crush the protest.  The tension between urban "elites" and the less well developed countryside is an issue world over, but especially so in nations where the villages are at almost bronze age level, while those living in the cities have internet access and clean water.

[Verbal Mike]

When trying to catch up on Egyptian history the other day, I read that Nasser actually went and connected all the villages to electricity. So those tensions might not be quite so present in Egypt, but I have no idea really.

Anyway, weren't Mu's people saying that the horse- and camel-riders in Liberation Square came all the way from Giza? Giza isn't that far away from downtown Cairo (half an hour's bus ride iirc) but it seemed like that kind of thing... Like this was supposed to give the impression that these were less urban Egyptians who have no problem beating some city kids if the big boss says so...

[Verbal Mike]

This just in: army arresting pro-Mu thugs:
http://www.tweetdeck.com/twitter/SherineT/33537926251945985

[LMNO]

I heard an interesting theory: The Egyptian protests followed the Tunisian protests, which started because people found out how corrupt their government really was, because of... WIKILEAKS.

Which would mean that Assange is a promoter of (rather than a threat to) Democracy, just as he said.

[Verbal Mike]

It's pretty fucking amazing how much stuff has happened in the past few months which a year ago would have seemed very...unlikely.