No, we're not mercenaries. We just carry weapons and kill things for the joy of the experience.
Quote from: Bruno on June 24, 2026, 02:55:28 AMI wouldn't even know how to find Cain on FB.
I would like to know...
Quote from: Faust on June 20, 2026, 10:11:29 PMIts times like these I really miss Cain's opinionHe is very forthcoming on FB.
Quote from: Pergamos on June 21, 2026, 05:31:05 PMI don't think blunder is quite the right word. I think a cessation of hostilities by Israel has always been a very important thing to Iran, I don't think there would have been any progress if that had been left out. Now we get to see if the US actually does anything to reign Israel in.
Quote from: chaotic neutral observer on June 21, 2026, 03:51:23 PMThe US signing an MOU that requires the cooperation of a third party was a hilarious blunder. Iran has set itself up with a Xanatos gambit. I believe they knew what they were doing; Lebanon is mentioned three times in the first term of the MOU. That's not concise diplomatic language, that's hammering the point across.
Iran likely went into this expecting Israel wouldn't cooperate. But, what are the options?
If the US somehow, magically, gets Israel to stand down voluntarily, that's still a win for Iran--and it drives a wedge between the US and Israel. This war appears to have popular support in Israel, even if Netanyahu doesn't. The MOU being adhered to would leave Iran in a pretty strong position.
If Israel doesn't stand down voluntarily, then either:
The US attempts to force Israel to comply, by cutting off their weapons supplies, applying sanctions, or whatever other pressure they can bring to bear. A weakened Israel would be a big win for Iran. It's possible they want this even more than the terms of the MOU--after all, that $300 billion reconstruction fund sounds nice, but nobody expects Trump to hold up his side of any deal in the long-term.
The US doesn't force Israel to comply, and the MOU falls through. Now, Iran has justification (on paper) for keeping the strait closed. Not a best case for them, but they're still holding the cards. I've heard it claimed that oil reserves will hit a wall in about four weeks, at which point things will get very bad, very quickly. I guess if Cain was around, he might know if that is accurate.
I think Iran can't back down, and Israel won't, which means whatever happens, will be a result of US action. The US has already lost, but the ultimate form of that loss is unclear. Will they back out entirely, without an agreement, and leave the rest of the world to clean up their mess? Will they cut off Israel? Will they attempt a ground invasion of Iran? Will they come up with something even stupider than the above?